Completely Cynical SOTU Analysis

A long list of good public policy ideas, many of them very good and needed, presented in a dramatic and emotionally appealing way. Almost all of whom need to be passed by both Houses of the United States Congress, an institution broken beyond any hope when it comes to acting on issues of public policy. A Senate that is controlled by the filibuster rule and has at least 40 Republicans is not going to raise the minimum wage or help anyone go to pre-school. And if by some miracle of lobbying and Presidential arm-twisting and citizen involvement, the Senate does pass something, the House is firmly in the hands of the GOP and the House GOP is firmly in the hands of the Ted Nugent wing of the party. So that's that.

Also Rubio did look silly with the water. The same logic applies to his list of policy ideas, none of which are going anywhere while Obama is President and the Dems control the Senate. So we might as well spend time taking about the water.

Showdown Week

This week is a week for deadlines and high stakes negotiations, with a potential Federal Government shutdown and NFL lockout possible by Friday.

Like any good fight this one is over money. Lots of money.

Just for the record, I'm with Obama and the player's union on this stuff.

The Money is Where the Fight is

Obama is out with his budget for the year. 3.73 trillion, not bad. It cuts in some places, spends more in others. Of course, its not going anywhere in the new GOP controlled House, but the budget has to get down, unlike every other thing we are going to fight about this year. No budget, and the little old ladies in the Tea Party woun't get thier Social Security checks. And we can't have that, can we?

Every other thing that the House, the Senate or the President wants can get killed by the other branches. The Senate makes it so easy to kill policy iniatives that sometimes they kill things by accedent. But the budget is different.

So this is where the fight is.

The Obama Rebound

Have you seen the polls lately? I mean, they were getting not fun there for a while, but Obama has really turned the old job approval numbers around. Where did this come from? A few thoughts.

1. Maybe people just needed to let off some steam. Apart from the Tea Party hard-core, I think the majority of the population hold two contradictory ideas in their heads: first, the economy sucks eggs and second, they like Obama. They like his personality and they like his program. So how do people deal with these two thoughts? Things are not fixed, but we like the guy trying to fix them. Well, they vote for his opponents in a mid-term election where he isn't on the ballot. Once they get that out of their system, they go back to liking him. Imagine you're a boss who's given a super-hard, vital task to a trusted underling. The job isn't done, but your guy is brilliant and no one could have done better. What can you do? Well, you yell at your underling a bit, but keep him on the job and give him a raise in a few months. That's the midterm results, followed by a big bump in Obama ratings.

2. Theory the second: This is all positive feedback from the lame-duck session of Congress. Obama got a whole slew of great headlines by passing and signing a whole slew of legislation: tax cut deal, ending don't ask don't tell, passing the START treaty and so on. Which means that Republicans were.completely right, tactically speaking, to block as much as they did. Just imagine if Obama had gotten those headline and that bump before the midterms? We might still have Madam Speaker.

Rahm Leaves

You know, I find this kind of refreshing. Rahm has always been very straightforward about wanting to be Mayor of Chicago, and the opportunity presented itself, and he's going for it. He never made a false front about not wanting the job, or acting reluctant, or pretending to not be ambitious. That's got to count for something.

White House Correspondents Dinner

Presidential jokes! Also Jay Leno doing his thing, which kind of sounds like jokes, but ain't.

And Now the Turn Around

Turns out, when America is not run by a idiot ass who invades countries at a whim, America is pretty popular.

Drill?

If I wanted drill, baby, drill, I would have voted for the ditz Governor-lady.

A Mash-Up for Our Times

Obama and the Long Haul

This is how the Obama Era is going to work. Long hauls and wins in the end. Obama won the longest contested primary in history in 2008. He won a long grind of a general election later that year. He just won passage of the biggest piece of domestic legislation in two generations, after the longest public debate that anyone alive can remember. This is how Obama works. More than any politician I've seen, Obama is focused on the long-term. Most people live their lives day-to-day and most politics works the same way. Win the news cycle. Win the week. Obama is about winning the year. Winning the era. Which makes for some fairly disheartening day-to-days. Obama doesn't win the news cycle. Which at the time, feels terrible. A bad day feels bad. But politics doesn't work on points. You don't add up all the news cycles and whoever got the most, wins. Wins are bigger than that. Election Day. Legislation getting signed. That's where Obama puts his focus and that's where he wins.

Today's Moment of Zen

Via

Everytime

There are certain certainties in American Political rhetoric. No one attacks Mom. No one says they will raise taxes. And everything Democrats do on matters of national defense is called "weak" by Republicans. I'm just wondering how they will end up calling this weak. Not that I doubt that they will, I'm just wondering how.

Static

Internet trouble here at Craigorian Chant world headquarters last night, so I was left unable to both watch or comment on the State of the Union. Just assume both Obama gave a good speech and my commentary was both insightful and funny.

Not the Right Kind

There are certain scandals one would associate with the White House Office of Management and Budget Director. Not getting the numbers to add up is a perennial problem, and generally beyond any individual to fix. Actually telling the truth to the Atlantic Monthly that Supply-side economics is a giant scam and that your Administration has no clue with regard to the budget is my personal favorite.

But OMB directors are nerdy types, anti-social and concerned with math and numbers and such. This kind of stuff just isn't what you expect.

West Wing Gossip

Your red hot West Wing gossip of the day:

Resident Obama Administration nerd and Director of the Office of Management and Budget Peter Orszag is now engaged to ABC newsbabe Bianna Golodryga.

We now return to our regualy scedualed policy program, "Balacing the Federal Budget in 124 Easy Steps

Surreal Moment of the Day

Obama accepting the Nobel Peace Prize, talking of wars.

Crashing is a Superpower

Crash a State Dinner

Sure, why not?

Pardon Me

Rest Assured American

Obama is keeping an eye on the robot threat.

Whatever befalls American over the next three years, a surprise attack by robots will not be it.

I know I'll sleep better tonight.