The GOP You Can Work With

Pretty much consists of Arnold Schwarzenegger. Check him out on This Week. He's saying all the stuff that the Congressional GOP isn't. Too bad Schwarzenegger only means of working with Obama is spending the money Obama sends him. Which is more than some GOP Governors.

Still Don't Believe It

So I'm watching some coverage of the SoCal fires and Governor Arnold is getting some pretty good press and I still have yet to come to terms with the fact that he's our Governor. It's been over four years and every time he's on the TV I still say, out lound, "Wow, can you believe that Arnold Schwarzenegger is actually in charge of the state of California?"

I'm not sure I will ever come to terms with it.

Correction

In 2005 the Govenator of California held a special election. Every single one of his proposed ballot measures (A collection of right-wing causes, like kicking unions) went down. His polls rating sucked. In response, the Governator shifted his political stance. To the left. He dropped all of his right wing policy proposals and started signing laws to combat global warming and giving more money to schools. He cruised to reelection.

The National Republicans are not learning this lesson. When you are unpopular, when you get beat in an election you have got to move. Or you're going to get thumped. Again

Keeping Califorian Regular

Doing the important things:

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has officially proclaimed January 2007 as "California Dried Plum Digestive Health Month," and wants all Californians to incorporate the fruits into their daily diet. Dried plums, as you might recall, used to be called "prunes" until growers decided they needed a name that doesn't evoke jokes like those we're making here.

How to Avoid a Thumping

Move massively to the left. That is the lesson of the Govenator's 2006 reelection, standing proud and true among the Republican wreckage.

Now some will try and spin Schwarzenegger as moving to the "center" but the truth is after his own "thumping" in the 2005 special election, he has been firmly planted on the left. His chief of staff is now an out lesbian, former chief of staff to Grey Davis. In fact, he pretty much working the exact same ground that Grey Davis did.

He's put in big spending increase for education and campaigned (successfully) for a host of bond measures to massively increase infrastructure spending. He's signed a minimum wage increase and a global warming measure. He's said US troop should come home from Iraq. Sure, he's gotten wormy about finances in order to offer no tax increases, but it’s not like Grey Davis didn't play these exact same games.

So given the fact that policy-wise Schwarzenegger is indistinguishable from a Democrat, why not vote for the global celebrity? Its fun. It’s funny. It only stops being funny when Schwarzenegger actually acts like a Republican. Now he knows better.

The same California voters just elected Jerry "Moonbeam" Brown Attorney General by an even larger margin that Schwarzenegger won. Donkeys won for Lt. Governor, SecState and Treasurer, not to mention kept large margins in both houses of the State Assembly and Senate. The Govenator is a party of one.

The lesson of Schwarzenegger is act like a Democrat, get elected like a Democrat. I seriously doubt that this is a model the GOP can export to the rest of the Country.

CA Horserace

Schwarzenegger has a significant but not overwhelming six point lead over Angelides in the latest governor race poll.

Dianne Feinstein is beating Richard Mountjoy so badly in the Senate race, I'm only including it because the mention of Dick Mountjoy in this post will bring in porn-seeking google searches.

But the Schwarzenegger lead is real. He's gotten that lead the old fashion way: by completely abandoning the conservatism that got him in so much trouble last year and embracing liberalism with both hands.

His latest move is to completely screw big business and sign a major piece of anti-greenhouse gas legislation. I really wonder if Grey Davis would have done this. My guess is the race will stay pretty close all fall and as long as it does, look for all kinds of moderate liberal stuff from the Governator. It's how you win in CA politics.

Hmmm

It appears that California under the Govenator is conducting its own foreign policy with Blair's UK.

Weakening

Latest poll numbers are out for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and all I can say is ouch.

Less than a third -- 31 percent -- of the state's adults approve of the job the governor is doing in Sacramento, down from 54 percent in February. The numbers are only slightly better among registered voters, 37 percent of whom are happy with Schwarzenegger's performance and 53 percent dissatisfied.

Thats a really bad number. A Grey Davis number. The funny thing is that at least Grey had rolling blackouts to blame. All of the Govenator's wounds have been self-inflicted, picking fights with nurses, and so on. His call for a special election has landed like a dead duck. Having a movie star in charge has lost its appeal:

It is pathetic that Californians bought the hype, but then that's what we do. But like the good little faddists we are, when the fad dies we reject it with a vehemence . Nobody wants to be seen in last year's fashions. Live by the trend, die by the trend.

My prediction is that the Govenator is going move to left in a big way. The only way to make up ground is in the middle, because, unlike with Bush, there are just not enough voters on the right in CA to get his ass reelected. Look for some big new program ment to appeal to all those moderates and lefties.

Gerrymandering

I swear that I had this exact same thought over breakfast when I first read it in the paper. I just never wrote it down. Good thing Political Animal has:

No, what depressed me was Schwarzenegger's proposal to end gerrymandering in California — and that's hugely ironic, because not only is this is a great idea, but the scuttlebutt says that in order to get Democrats to support it Schwarzenegger will agree to extend term limits from the current 14 years (6 in the legislature and 8 in the senate) to 20 or 24 years. That's also a good idea, since the combination of safe seats and absurdly short terms means we have a legislature that's both extremist and inexperienced. It's a toxic brew.

So why am I depressed? Because the insanely partisan atmosphere of contemporary American politics means I can't support this proposal even though I think it would be good for the state. After watching Texas Republicans ram through a brutally gerrymandered mid-decade redistricting that gained the Republican party four congressional seats in the 2004 election, how stupid would a California Democrat have to be to agree to meekly support a goo-goo proposal that would have the effect of giving Republicans more seats in yet another state? Guys like Tom DeLay and Hugh Hewitt would be guffawing in their beers for days about our terminal naivete if we went along with this. Raw power would be their ally in red states and appeals to progressive idealism would be their ally in the blue states. That's quite a combination.

Now to disagree. This may not be as bad for California democrats as Kevin thinks. What Schwarzenegger really want are more competitive districts for both sides. Right now everyone is a lock and the Govenator can't dangle their job in front of them to move his agenda. Competitive districts tend to produce moderates (Good for Schwarzenegger proposals) and close races than can be influenced by say a popular statewide official. The govenator doesn't want to lock in more conservatives. There is no reason to think that the Donkeys couldn't win a bunch of competitive seats and widen their margins over the old system. It is California after all.

California Politics

So Governator gets into trouble over calling Democratic legislators "girly men." This comes from a dispute over the budget. Political Animal speculates that the Governor Bench Press may be trying to pick a fight to score some seats in November.

And all followed up with his juvenile "girlie men" comments and threats to campaign against any Democrat who doesn't toe the governor's line. It's hard to draw any conclusion except that he wants budget talks to fail and is hoping to use that for partisan gains in November.
Which might very well be the answer. Arnold might be playing a longer and riskier game than anyone thinks, mostly designed to make his future easier - especially since next year's budget is going to make this year's look like a stroll in the park. And by waving a red flag in front of the Democratic bulls, he might be hoping to get them to lose their tempers and seal their own doom.

I think that he may be right about the tactics, but this strategy is sure to fail. The reason: gerrymandering. CA legislator districts are gerrymandering within an inch of their life. This means that almost all incumbents, both D and R are secure. There is not one competitive Federal House race in CA this year. This also means that the Dem majority in the State Assembly and Senate are secure. Governor Biceps can pick all the fights he wants, he is not going to win a thing.