The Obama Rebound

Have you seen the polls lately? I mean, they were getting not fun there for a while, but Obama has really turned the old job approval numbers around. Where did this come from? A few thoughts.

1. Maybe people just needed to let off some steam. Apart from the Tea Party hard-core, I think the majority of the population hold two contradictory ideas in their heads: first, the economy sucks eggs and second, they like Obama. They like his personality and they like his program. So how do people deal with these two thoughts? Things are not fixed, but we like the guy trying to fix them. Well, they vote for his opponents in a mid-term election where he isn't on the ballot. Once they get that out of their system, they go back to liking him. Imagine you're a boss who's given a super-hard, vital task to a trusted underling. The job isn't done, but your guy is brilliant and no one could have done better. What can you do? Well, you yell at your underling a bit, but keep him on the job and give him a raise in a few months. That's the midterm results, followed by a big bump in Obama ratings.

2. Theory the second: This is all positive feedback from the lame-duck session of Congress. Obama got a whole slew of great headlines by passing and signing a whole slew of legislation: tax cut deal, ending don't ask don't tell, passing the START treaty and so on. Which means that Republicans were.completely right, tactically speaking, to block as much as they did. Just imagine if Obama had gotten those headline and that bump before the midterms? We might still have Madam Speaker.

Socialism: Actually Pretty Popular

I know you all have heard about the tea parties, the movement that is sweeping the nation and about to send all of us liberals to the ash bin of history.

Well, it turns out that Socialism is just as popular as tea parties. Just over a third of people approve of each. More than enough to form a revolutionary cadre. So maybe we can have two revolutions. First, lets sweep government out of lives completely. Then we can seize the means of productions.

Everybody Hates Joe

Turns out, being a jerk doesn't make you popular. Joe Lieberman now has a job approval rating of 25% in Connecticut. That's really, really bad, just in case your wondering. 67 percent disapprove of the job he's doing. 19% Approve of the job he's doing on health care.

You know what, I really comforted by this poll. Bad actions should result in bad poll numbers. Joe Lieberman worked very hard to make health care reform legislation worse, for no other reason than spite. That kind of thing needs to be punished at the polls or we will never get better government.

So yeah, voter of Connecticut!

Things that Make You Go Hmmmmm

I don't mean to alarm anybody but in a poll on the most admired man by Americans, Glenn Beck is tied with THE POPE

Hillary and Barack remains comfortably at the top, but sill, boy, Americans, I just don't know.

The Most Trusted Name in News

Can you guess who?

They Still Love Her

Republicans, that is.

Credit Due

You know, for all the sound and fury of the right-wing noise machine, the American people still find the truth most of the time. Back during the Clinton Impeachment, despite an overwhelming effort from both the conservative and mainstream press, the American people never supported impeachment.

Likewise, despite a massive effort to blame the clean-up crew for the mess, polls show that blame is getting assigned where it belongs. In this WashPost poll 80% blame banks and large corporations for the current mess. 70% blame the Bush Administration. Just 26% blame the Obama Administration. The American people know what's up.

Congress Getting More Popular

Up 20 points in the last two months. What have they been doing for the last couple months? Implementing the Obama agenda! The stimulus package, fair pay act and so on. They are doing what the people want! Forget all this talk about doing too much. Do more. This is a popular agenda. People will like you if you do it, and maybe even vote for you again.

Keep it Close

Ezra Klein flags the media taking the one poll in 13 that shows a close national race. While at this points it's pretty damn easy to paint a picture that shows Obama running away with this, it's actually in no one's interest to show the election as a beat down. Obama doesn't want his voters to get compliant. McCain doesn't want his voters to despair. And the media doesn't want to cover a lopsided affair. They want drama, hard-fought, down-to-the-wire action, very much like the last couple of elections. And so they will get that kind of race, even if they need to invent it out of whole cloth.

Should Be. Is!

All though the fall the GOP fall-back horse race talking point has been "Given all that's going on, Obama should be up at least 15 points over McCain"

Well, now Obama is up 14% in the latest NYTimes/CBS poll.

Should be up big. Is up big.

*Sniff*

Oh just look at those beautiful electoral map projections. Nevada, Virgina, Florida, all for Obama. Tied in North Carolina. A tear runs down my cheek. Such a wonderful vision.

Swung

Obama up in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. He wins those three and its over. Of course, its not election day, so its not, in fact, over.

Poll Porn

Polls have been far too mixed for far too long to properly indulge. But here's Washington Post-ABC News giving Obama a 9 point national lead. Woo.

Winning in Montana

HA HA

Low

Bush now at 23% approval in latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll. That's less than one in four people approving of him. This fits the larger trend. Lower and lower.

In fact, there is now a movement to rename San Fransisco's sewer treatment plant after George W. Bush.

Pretty low.

Scoreboard! Scoreboard!

Obama is up 47-41 over McCain in the latest NBC/WSJ poll. Turns out all those groups that Obama had a "problem" with when he ran against Hillary - women, Hispanics and so on, don't have have a problem when he matches up against McCain. With just 1000 phone calls, six months of TV punditry just went out the window.

Mr.25%

Bush now down to 25% approval rating. Only one in four american adults now approve of the job Bush is doing. Which means that Bush is now below the The Crazification Factor.

Well, What do You Know!

Looks like the good people of California are surprisingly OK with gay marriage. They just needed a little push from the friendly neighborhood judge.

Winning Already

Obama leads McCain 48% to 40%. Not to ignore Mrs. Clinton, but...

Really, it nothing personal.

Poll Dance

Obama now leads Clinton 54 percent to 38 percent nationally. Which actually doesn't matter that much because most of the Country has voted already. More important are states that have yet to vote. Obama now has a small lead in Texas.