I'm Telling You We are going to Win

So, I keep hearing from people about how they are so sad that Bush is going to win. Mainly this is based on the sight of a Gallup poll that puts Bush up 13 points that everyone seems to have seen. Everybody calm down just a bit. There are a lot of polls and most of them have the race very close. Go to polling report and take a look. I think one problem is that people are thinking about this race like it's a sports game. I'm as fond of sports metaphors as anybody but a Presidential race is not a football game. In football, an early lead will help you later in the game. Being really ahead early in the race does not help you one bit if that lead is gone by election day. Just ask President Howard Dean. There is only one poll that Kerry has to win and that's election day. The horse race numbers will not be worth the html I've linked to on November 3rd. The horse race will move up and down. We have had both conventions, and in a week the debates will start. All kinds of polls will come out. Only one will matter. So go vote and don't let Gallup mess with your head. The Republicans will act like they are winning. Here is an old quote from 2000 I stole from The Note:

With little more than three weeks until Election Day, Mr. Bush and his aides are exuding a mood as helium-buoyant as at any other point in the 16 months of his campaign. They feel that he aced last week's debate and turned the tide of polls decidedly in his favor, and they seem to be operating in a zone of comfort and joy, or at least are successfully projecting that image.

Frank Bruni, New York Times, October 16, 2000

Kerry's "Top 10 Bush Tax Proposals"

10. No estate tax for families with at least two U.S. presidents.

9. W-2 Form is now Dubya-2 Form.

8. Under the simplified tax code, your refund check goes directly to Halliburton.

7. The reduced earned income tax credit is so unfair, it just makes me want to tear out my lustrous, finely groomed hair.

6. Attorney General (John) Ashcroft gets to write off the entire U.S. Constitution.

5. Texas Rangers can take a business loss for trading Sammy Sosa.

4. Eliminate all income taxes; just ask Teresa (Heinz Kerry) to cover the whole damn thing.

3. Cheney can claim Bush as a dependent.

2. Hundred-dollar penalty if you pronounce it "nuclear" instead of "nucular."

1. George W. Bush gets a deduction for mortgaging our entire future.

Quote of the Day

If Bush wins this election it will be because he successfully got a majority of the American people to believe they're living in his fantasy universe where all will be right in Iraq as long as we have sufficient willpower and where his opponent has some secret plan to surrender to America's enemies. If it works, he'll have had a lot of help in constructing it.

Matthew Yglesias, TAPPED

Kerry Knows What He Is Talking About

Everyone read this Kerry speech about Iraq. Share it with everyone who questions Kerry on Iraq. Kerry knows what has gone wrong and is working on how to fix it. If it can be fixed this man and his team can do it. And if Iraq cannot be solved I trust Kerry to be the guy to decide.

Bush, in case you are wondering, still thinks everything is going just fine in Iraq.

While secretly planning to withdraw shortly after the election!

Now it's Real

I little while ago I read a story, I can't remember where, about how young football stars today don't really feel like they have made something of themselves until they have appeared in the Madden NFL video game. Being on TV and a big contract is cool, but you haven't made it until you can play yourself in a video game. Now I could try and convince you that John Kerry is a war hero with boring official findings, reports blah, blah blah. Or you could just play the video game. Case closed.

Why all Polls are Wrong

I'm going to seriously lose it if I keep looking at horserace polls. By the Donkey Rising round-up Kerry is slightly ahead, tied or being crushed. Most electorial collage tallies have Bush ahead, but I see state polls in there that have George and John within 1 point of each other in both Minnesota and Colorado which both really should be locked up by now Minnesota - Blue, Colorado - Red. The Pew research center had Kerry making up a 13 point lead in one week! Everything is totally screwy. The US electorate is going to more than 100 million people in 2004. I mean the Pew center is filled with very smart people and all but did 13 million people just change their minds in the last week? I can firmly say at this point that all of these polls are wrong. Backing me up in this is Jimmy Breslin of Newsday who has today's must read.

Anybody who believes these national political polls are giving you facts is a gullible fool...

The telephone polls do not include cellular phones. There are almost 169 million cell phones being used in America today - 168,900,019 as of Sept. 15, according to the cell phone institute in Washington.

There is no way to poll cell phone users, so it isn't done...

You do a political poll on land-line phones, you miss those from 18 to 25, and there are figures all over the place that show there are 40 million between the ages of 18 and 29, one in five eligible voters.

And the great page-one presidential polls don't come close to reflecting how these younger voters say they might vote. The majority of them use cell phones and nobody ever asks them anything.

I am the voter he is talking about. I don't have a land line, all I use is my cell phone. Nobody has ever polled me. To correct this oversight I shall conduct the very first Craigorian Chant cell phone poll. I shall randomly call 5 people off of the pre-set numbers on my cell phone...Please wait...

Results
Kerry 80%
Bush 0%
Undecided 20%

There you have it folks. Inevitable Kerry victory. Seriously, I really think that young people with cells are Kerry people and they just are not in these polls.

Quote of the Day

"George Bush is proud of the fact that not even failure can cause him to change his mind."

John Kerry

A Post to Keep My Mother from Worry

I got a forwarded e-mail from the official Mother of Craigorian Chant today that talked about legislation to reinstate the draft that is working it's way through Congress. Called S89 and HR163 it seems guaranteed to scare the crap out of my Mom and millions of women like her. Rest assured there is nothing to worry about. This is legislation introduced by Charles Rangel (D-Harlem) the very liberal, gravel voiced, black Congressman. Rangel, a Korean War vet, is very opposed to the Iraq war and stupid wars in general. He feels that if middle and upper class kids were going to die in wars then we would have fewer wars. These bills have no chance in Congress and are very much a political stunt. On the broader subject of having a draft I think that it is highly unlikely. It doesn't make a lot of military sense. There are two reasons that we don't have Vietnam-level casualties in Iraq, one is body armor. The other reason is that we have a professional, rather than a drafted military. Finally, having a draft would be political death. Imagine ten million moms just like mine storming the capital. If you are still worried read this John Edwards story:

"There will be no draft when John Kerry is president," Edwards said, a statement that drew a standing ovation.

So vote Kerry-Edwards and keep my mother from worry. She can go back to worrying if I will make it through grad school and get a job that has health benefits.

Things to Be Read

More about Bush and Russia by Robert Kagan:

Nor is there any complexity or fuzziness about the significance of Putin's actions. Putin is imposing dictatorship the old-fashioned way, in the manner of a Ferdinand Marcos, an Anastasio Somoza or a Park Chung Hee. He claims that he needs to strengthen the state to face its enemies. So did they. Russia does need to fight terrorism. But eliminating elections and quashing Putin's political opponents has nothing to do with that fight.

Stuff on Bush and the National Guard which injects some higher meaning to the subject:

Does any of this matter? What troubles me is less Mr. Bush's advantage three decades ago and more his denial today. Mr. Bush's own route to avoid the draft underscores the disparities in America, yet his policies seem based on a kind of social Darwinism in which the successful make their own opportunities. His tax cuts and entire outlook seem rooted in ideas not of noblesse oblige, but of noblesse entitlement.

Bush is a son of privilege. That's what he knows because he has not bothered to learn about anything else. He thinks that his policies are good because they are good for sons of privilege. Kerry is a son of privilege, but because he knows and thinks about the world his policies help people in that world.

For international flavor read the Scotsman on the Iraq clusterfuck:

TWO months ago, amid the kind of secrecy more normally associated with Saddam’s illicit arms deals, the US authorities in Baghdad formally handed over power to the fledgling Iraqi government.

The ceremony, amid the formidable security of the Green Zone, was done two days ahead of schedule in a bid to wrongfoot insurgents - for whom, it was claimed, it would provide the key rallying moment for a final, last-gasp offensive.

Today, with both Ayad Allawi's new government and its coalition backers losing control of the country, it is hard to imagine why anybody bothered with such constitutional conjuring.

Craigorian Chant: Stealing the best thinking from around the web.

Democracy

You hear a lot of talk from Bush about promoting democracy. Democracy promotion is a long standing American tradition that waxes (Kennedy, Carter) and wanes (Nixon) as time goes on. Democracy is such a duh good thing in American culture that even Queen Amidala in the new Star Wars movies is elected, with term limits, which doesn't make her much of a queen if you think about it. Anyway, it's easy to talk about Democracy, but as always, results matter. As you can see the world has made a lot of progress in the 1990's with the fall of the Soviet Bloc and liberalization of Latin America. This process started under Bush I and continued under Clinton. How has Bush II done? Not so well. Iraq and Afganistan are not democracies they are chaosocracies (my new word). Chaos rules not 'Freedom.' The Arab world remains the least free region in the world. Most troubling Russia under Putin seems to be taking a huge step backwards.

The former KGB spy's directive for revamping the way Russia is governed included an end to the direct popular election of governors and a major rearrangment in the rules for selecting members of parliament, already deeply loyal to the Kremlin.

Critics charged the Russian leader was using the bloody outcome of the Beslan school siege to grab more power.

The rules for electing members of parliament are less troubling to me. Different counties use different systems to elect their legislators, it's like the difference between Sweden and Great Britain. The ending of direct election of governors is really troubling. It reminds Political Animal of Imperial policy in Episode IV of Star Wars (Two Star Wars references in one Post!) Things that we worry about in the US, like using terrorist attacks to seize power are now playing out live and in color in Russia. There is a lot of talk about Bush II dealing with his father's legacy in Iraq. But Bush II is in real danger of watching as the greatest achievement of Bush I presidency is destroyed: Democratic Russia.

Assault Weapons Ban, Swing States and Why Everyone Should Vote

The assault weapons ban has expired today, so I can get that AK-47 I've been saving up for. Bush claims that he would sign a new ban if only Congress would send him one. Congress, which is, of course, under the control of The President's Own Party, has taken no action on the matter. So Bush can say he is against assault weapons while letting them become legal. I shall now smoothly transition to why you should vote. John Kerry is in favor of the assault weapons ban. He has won the endorsement of police unions in part because of that support. If he becomes President he will attempt to get a new ban through Congress in the face of the opposition of the forces of darkness, in this case, the NRA. How strong he is politically will determine if the ban makes it through Congress. I have been hearing a lot of static about how "it doesn't matter if I vote for Kerry, I don't live in a swing state” But the better Kerry does in the election, the more of his agenda can get through to Congress. There is a great scene in this episode of The West Wing where the President's staffer can kick a Congressmen's ass over a gun control bill because the President got more votes in the Congressmen's district than the Congressman did. So in a year from now when Kerry's guys on the Hill are trying to get all kinds of bills passed, it will really matter that Kerry won by 55-45 in some congressional district rather than 51-49. So get your ass to polls, no matter where you live.

Headlines or Why the Bush Foreign Policy Sucks Eggs in 3 Easy Steps

North Korea Blast Not Likely Nuclear - Well, I feel better.

Iran Rejects Call to Abandon Nuclear Program - Oh, not so good.

At Least 24 Die in Baghdad Fighting - Alright, now you are just pissing me off.

Two of the biggest problems in the world are North Korea and Iran. Nuclear North Korea and Iran are total nighmares. The entire US Army is now tied down in Iraq. Every major Army unit is either in Iraq or recovering from Iraq so it can go back. We have nothing left to deal with North Korea and Iran. They, unlike Iraq, are getting nukes. North Korea may already have nukes. The Bush administration not only managed to pick the one rogue nation in the world without a nuke program, they have burned up all of our dipomatic goodwill and available military force to do so. So, now the real crisis will come and we will have nothing left to deal with it.

Friday No-Panic Edition

So, every morning I turn on cable news for 5-15 minutes while I put on my shoes and eat a bagel or somesuch. CNN, Fox, whoever has politics going at that moment. Today it's Fox and I am in despair. Kerry's poll numbers are down, he can't do anything right, blah, blah. I hang my head in shame. But then I log on and the lovely Michelle Cottle, who really should be on TV more, has written an article to buck me up.

Enough with the public hand-wringing. For starters, this election is hardly over. Iraq is still a disaster. The economy isn't exactly en fuego. Al Qaeda is very much alive and recruiting like crazy. The entire Middle East, and much of the rest of the world, thinks America is the Great Satan. Our homeland security efforts are scattered and underfunded. Iran and North Korea are building nukes. Dick Cheney is becoming a bigger jerk by the day. Bush's National Guard record is back in the news. And not even Karl Rove's flying monkeys can stop Monday's release of Kitty Kelley's new book--which, while unlikely to inflict much damage to W.'s rep, in part because even many Republicans have long assumed that "I was young and irresponsible" is code for "I was a rich, spoiled, coke-snorting, drunk-driving, awol slamhound, will at least annoy the Bushies for a few days.

Ok, Michelle, I say, if you are telling me to not to panic, then I shall remain tough. Then I read this one by William Saletan which compares the Bush administration to the guy who runs the wrong way with the football and I start to feel good. Then this story in Salon about how conservatives shouldn't vote for Bush. Dark cloud lifted.

I proudly present my Bush-Cheney 2004 slogan:

We may be lost, but we are making good time.

Yuck

Anybody want to read about how Bush did coke?

Yeah, me neither. But they started it.

He who fights with monsters might take care lest he thereby become a monster. And if you gaze for long into an abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.

Friedrich Nietzsche
So, to give a more constructive, responsible argument here is a link about jobs and stuff.

Craigorian Chant: We vote on jobs, not coke.

The Fight Goes On

1000 dead. Administration rudderless.

I joked earlier this week about the GOP message being "Vote for Kerry and you kill us all." Well, the VP went and said it.

Zogby Battleground poll say Kerry still has EC lead. How reliable is the Zogby Battleground poll? Extremely reliable until it shows a Bush lead. But regardless the graphic looks cool. Virtual Post-It Notes!

Any good or not so good Catholics here today? Give the political test at Votingcatholic.org a try to see how your views match up with Bush, Kerry and official Catholic church views. I, to the surprise of no one, agree most with Kerry, but the Bishops and I don't disagree as much as you would think.

Finally one More U2 thing - hear the President sing "Sunday, Bloody, Sunday" here.

Mess in Iraq

Lest we forget, the mess in Iraq is still, well, a mess. Our soldiers continue to die. We have lost 58 soldiers in July and 75 in August and 21 in the first week of September. For those of you keeping score at home, that's a worse rate of casualties after the "handover" of "power" to the Iraqi "Government" than before. What do you know? The "Handover" did not work in reducing the fighting. How did I know that it would not work: The Bush administration said that it would reduce the fighting. Just like declaring "Mission Accomplished," killing Saddam's sons, and capturing Saddam were going to stop the fighting and didn't. Now taking casualties alone does not render Iraq a clusterfuck. Taking casualties while losing control of most major cities in Iraq not to mention Sadr city in Baghdad, does. Imagine occupying Chicago with the south side in open rebellion. There are not that many cities in Iraq, if the U.S. backed central government does not control these cities then they are not the government of Iraq. We can retake these cities, but it would wreck the cities. Which in the words of Iraq'd would:

And would the surviving residents and neighbors of a flattened city really be inclined to view elections held in the wake of destruction as credible and legitimate? I hate to say it, but ask a Chechen. It may very well be that at this late hour, free and fair elections in January may simply not be possible.

Bill Clinton, recovering nicely, had foreign policy screw-ups. Somalia was not a highlight. Some of you may have seen the movie. After a screw-up that cost the lives of 19 soldiers Clinton fired his Defense secretary. Sometime this week 1,000 soldiers will be dead.

Not one member of the Bush Foreign Policy Team has been fired.

Bono on The O'Reilly Factor!

My biggest miss of the GOP Convention, along with not scoring an interview with Zell Miller for the blog, was not seeing Bono go on the O'Reilly Factor. Nothing dies on the internet and I have found the transcript. Now, it is well known that, in addition to being the front man for the GREATEST ROCK BAND IN THE WORLD, Bono has magical powers when it comes to fighting for his causes of AIDS and Debt relief in Africa. He moved the racist old hardass Senator Jesse Helms to tearfull support of his cause. Full of shit Bill O'Reilly does not stand a chance:

O'REILLY: Do you really believe America is a great country?

BONO: Yes, I do.

O'REILLY: Because a lot of Europeans do not.

BONO: Yes -- no, I mean, I'm like an annoying fan. I'm like the one that reads the liner notes on the CD. I'm the one that -- I read the Declaration of Independence before a speaking tour we did on AIDS in the Midwest. I've read the Constitution. I've read these poetic tracks. And I suppose, you know, I'm just going around trying to remind people that their country -- why it is great, and in case they forget, why it’s great. Because the United States that I love is like the Statue of Liberty with its arms open, give me your tired, your poor and huddled masses. It's not the continent behaving like an island, which sometimes it behaves like.

...

BONO: Look, if you see a car crash, somebody's lying there in the middle of the road bleeding and it turns out they're a drunk driver, you're still going to call an ambulance. We can't make these judgments about entire civilizations. We try to re-educate people, we try to deal with the problem.

And by the way, not dealing with the problem with something like AIDS, which metastasized, which grows on a geometric level, is really foolhardy. Because it will be more expensive to deal with it later.

...

O'REILLY: You're certainly doing God's work. I mean, I admire you very much for what you're doing.

No chance at all.

Radio Cities!

Here’s an interesting thing I thought about whilst driving across country the last week of August: Radio could decide the election!

According to this, (9th paragraph down) Kerry’s best swing state win chances are Florida, Ohio, Nevada, West Virginia and New Hampshire.

Let's look at the number of affiliates Air America has in these key swing states: Yikes! They suck!

Now lets take a look at Bill O’Reily and Rush Limbaugh alone (keep in mind I’m not counting Micheal Savage, Micheal Medved, Sean Hannity, G. Gordon Liddy, etc.)

Bill:

Rush:

(click and count yourself)

You’ll find that combined its 100+ vs. 3 in the key swing states that Kerry has "the best chance in" !!! Of course I'm not counting satelite radio, but that doesn't really matter much.

Could hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions be persuaded by radio? It sounds silly, but think about those news reports they had during the Primaries when they asked some people when they decided on whom to vote for. Some of them said "In the car ride over here." !!!—you know where there are radios!

But then again, what do I know.......

Poll Heartburn

So Time and Newsweek both have Bush up 10 points after the GOP convention. In totally unrelated news Former President Clinton's heart is on the fritz. No need to panic, a bunch of very soft voters got the message of the GOP: Vote for Kerry and you will kill us all. Kerry will come back. Now I must note that even the modest hopes of the protesters to step on Bush's message did not happen. Protests just don't seem to get it done. By the way, remind me to keep writing stuff like "Protests are futile" it really seems to rile up the readers. 100,000 extra voters will do so much more that 100,000 people in the streets. Look, a lot of you folks have jobs. There are two kinds of problems at work: the kind that could get you fired and all the other kinds of problems. Protesters are the second kind of problem for Bush.

Bush lives in a hermetically sealed bubble into which no criticism can enter. As our masterful UK correspondent points out to me in an e-mail that Bush events are completely stage-managed events with a pre-screened audience that give him softball questions to answer. I have mixed feelings about how effective this tactic is. On the one hand he never looks bad, but on the other hand he never talks to anyone but the choir. The Kerry campaign, on the other hand, does not screen it's events and goes into places that are not a lock for Kerry. The result is that Kerry draws some massive crowds to his events and is able to talk to people in the middle. The downside is that he gets heckled, which can get really interesting when Teresa talks back.

Hecklers - "Four More Years!"
Teresa Kerry - "They want four more years of Hell!"

Donkey Vrs Pachyderm Convention Scorecard

How did the two conventions stack up?

Themes of Convention: Already talked about this. "A more hopefull nation" We don't need hope. We need hopes answered.
Winner: Donkey

The Daughters: Please. Classy v Not. Material is everything. Cute story of hamster rescue v Sex in the City is something only adults do and never talk about. The Kerry's made you laugh the Bush's made you squirm.
Winner: Donkey

Keynote Speaker: Barak Obama v Zell Miller. The could be the best comparison for the Dems. Obama had poetry. They both blew the doors off the place but Obama is the one worth repeating. Zell was so full of bile that the only question will be how bad will this hurt the GOP.
Winner: Donkey

Other Speakers: The Clintons and Gore vs McCain, Giuliani. Kind of a tie. Good jobs all around. I'm giving this one to GOP mainly to avoid looking like a complete tool and because with the GOP guys we political junkies can speculate who will be running agaist President Kerry in 2008.
Winner: Elephants

Celebrities: Democrats easily win this one. I've been over this before. The only thing that makes this one close is that I'm putting the Govenator in this category. The GOP may have sucky celebrities but their one good one won the biggest state in the Union.
Winner: Donkey

Acceptance Speeches. The only thing that really matters. The rest of this stuff is just fun to talk about. TBD.
Winner: Let you Know in November.

What the Hell is wrong with Zell Miller?

If a guy switches parties he should really do so out of sadness, not anger. I would like to still be a democrat but they have moved to the left and I am forced to blah, blah blah. One should not become a raving loon overnight. Somehow, Zell Miller went from giving the keynote for Clinton's 92 convention and endorsing Kerry as one of the "Nation's authentic heroes." three years ago, to giving the most vile anti-Kerry address ever. Everybody I read online hated this speech. I really think that it will backfire. Miller's speech was the keynote speech of the convention, the equivalent of Obama's speech in Boston that got such rave reviews. The cable folks really tore into Miller in some interviews last night. The CNN Wolf/Jeff/Judy crew let him have it and Chris Mathews really tore him up on MSNBC. I think the refs are flagging the GOP for a penalty. The Dems should do all they can to wrap this speech around Bush. The GOP wanted this man, the Democrat's rejected him.

GOP Day 2

Oh, good grief, the Bush twins blew. That was terrible. I mean they looked very stylish and all, but their material blew. It sounded like a fifty-year old member of the Bush speechwriter staff tried to come up with something hip and edgy for some 20-somethings to say. Lots of pop culture references. They used "Sex and the City" and "Outkast" as set ups to jokes. I can't repeat the jokes because my mind, in an effort to protect me, is blocking the memory. Jeff Greenfield on CNN said "Whoever in the Bush campaign gave 5 minutes of Las Vegas material to the Bush daughters should be walking precinct in Alaska by next week."

Governor Biceps gave a damn good speech last night. But. The dirty secret of the whole Arnold thing is that the guy is really a liberal. He's for gay rights, gun control, and environmental regulation. He is to the left of the late Grey Davis on a number of issues including crime. Read this TNR story on the speech and his politics:

Consider these political inversions: In the last few weeks, Schwarzenegger has proposed massively expanding Indian gambling, recommended levying a utility rate hike to pay for solar energy, and signed off on the parole of a convicted murderer--all to opposition from leading Democrats.

Governor Bench Press is a liberal guy. He is married to a Kennedy. Case closed.

Finally a brief word about the First Lady. I think it is a pretty good indicator of how important terrorism is and how badly Iraq hurts Bush if even the First Lady is talking about it.

Unconventional Convention Coverage

The two parties used the following themes for their conventions:

Donkeys - Stronger at home, Respected in the world.
GOP - Fulfilling America's Promise: Building a Safer World and a More Hopeful America

If Bush loses Ohio by 13 votes it should be blamed on a really dumb theme.

Also I must note that Angie Harmon did speak last night and that for my money she was the sexiest ADA on Law and Order in a long line of sexy ADAs. However, one sexy fake ADA still does not make the Republicans cool.

Also, I have to say that just because Bush was President on 9/11 does not make him a good President. Just declaring war does not make the country safe. Saying that you are creating democracy does not create democracy. Never changing your mind ever does not make you steadfast.

Notes from the eternal war [this too will be redacted]

With an apparently strong sense of irony, John Ashcroft's Justice Dept has used it `domestic security' censoring abilities to censor a Supreme Court decision about ... censoring dissent with the excuse of security. Pics from the Memory Hole:

Muppets Take Manhattan

The GOP is coming! The GOP is coming! Hide the women and social programs! So, here we go again. Some nice stuff to look at to prep for 4 straight nights of GOP.

Kinsley has the best takedown of Bush you will read all week.

Against a backdrop of great events, even a mediocrity can seem great for a while.

Republicans declare themselves the official party of the Guy Upstairs.

the acting state Republican chair--an African-American man in a white cowboy hat named Leon Mosley--urged his delegates, "Let's remember what's paramount in our life: God ... This is the GOP: God's Official Party." At that, the room burst into sustained applause. Behold, the Republican base.

Also in TNR Gregg Easterbrook asks

The United States invaded Iraq in order to depose Saddam Hussein and search for banned weapons. Hussein is now deposed, and no banned weapons were present. So why don't we leave?

Do you think this is a question that will be answered this week?

Does Protesting really do all that Much?

I have talked a bit about how protesting might make some bad headlines and step on the GOP message. I have also links to some people worried about how some people are worried about blowback from such protests. But I think the real story here is just how worthless protesting is. Think about the tremendous effort that it takes to get 250,000 people to march on the streets of New York for a cause. The phone calls, the time organizing, making the banners and so on. The end result is maybe a headline that says "Thousands Hit NYC Streets; Cheney Arrives" and then Bush ignores the protest, wins the election and goes about the business of running the country into the ground. Think about if all that protest energy went into getting 250,000 people to vote. Elections turn history. Protests do not. The Bush administration, if it is secure in its electoral victory can ignore street protests. There were massive protests in the lead up to the Iraq war. If you look at the protests on a global scale, the Iraq war was the most heavily protested war ever. And protesting was a complete failure. It did not cause the Bush administration so much as a moment’s hesitation. But just a few more votes in 2000 would have elected this guy. And there would not have been an Iraq War. These people do not keep Karl Rove up at night because they will never cost his guy power. These people could. They are getting people to vote. They will cost Bush his job.

Republicans: Still Lame

Good take on the sorry state of GOP "stars." Best part is about Christian Rock:

It sounds like regular bad music when you first tune in. The lyrics always seem like regular bad music lyrics, too—"I feel your body next to mine/ And that makes my whole life shine"—but after a second or two you realize that they're singing about Jesus, not some girl named Mandy, and the whole thing just seems, well, creepy. Because rock music—and most other forms of entertainment, when you really think about it—is fundamentally about carnal desire. And Jesus, when you really think about it, is fundamentally not.

America Can Do Better

So, the US basketball team won the bronze medal today in Greece, avenging it's earlier loss to Lithuania, a county about the same size and population of my hometown. Now, while I have been unable to find a way to actually blame this sorry state of affairs on the Bush administration, I feel that the sorry state of USA basketball does reflect an America that has lost its way in the world. The 100 million dollar NBA salary of the "Dream Team" reflects the tremendous waste of the current 500 Billion dollar budget deficit. Team USA's one dimensional game, with its total lack of outside shooting is mightily similar to the Bush adminitration's one-dimensional foreign policy and its total lack of diplomacy. We expect to win in basketball and we expect a foreign policy that makes us safer. We expect better. Vote for Kerry. America can do better.

Quote of the Day

Via political Wire

"The chances of New York to host the Olympic games in 2012 were not that good. But now they were lowered to zero."

-- An International Olympic Committee member, quoted by Spiegel (translated by Florian), citing the Bush campaign's refusal to pull a campaign ad that mentions the Olympics.

The background on this is that Bush has been trying to wrap himself in the Olympics in an ad and that he has been slapped down by both the Iraqi soccer team and the IOC. Now New York finds out that Bush has screwed them out of the Olympics. Like New Yorkers need another excuse to hate Bush.

Republican Lameness Part 8

Via Talkingpoints Memo I found a NYTimes story on the music that will be playing during the RNC. Lots of Southern Rock stuff, very retro. But the true sign of GOP lameness comes at the very end of the story:

And coming on stage after Dickey Betts will be a band called Super Diamond, which according to its Web site, is "the alternative Neil Diamond Experience."

Alternative, yes: Mr. Diamond himself performed at a June fundraiser — for John Kerry.

A Neil Diamond cover band. I am not sure, but this could be the Platonic ideal of lame.

Kerry on Daily Show

Watched it last night. Mixed reviews around the web. I think that anything that makes Kerry seem more human is good. Kerry didn't try to be funny much, left that to Stewart who, frankly, is better at it. Somehow, "guy you would like to have a beer with" became a measure for whom to cast your vote. Now, this is a profoundly stupid way to pick a president, but that's the game so Kerry has to play. I liked this one:

Kerry: You'd be amazed the number of people who wanna introduce themselves to you in the men's room.

In other news, New York really does hate the GOP. I really think this is going to make them look bad. Reporters got really bored with the Dem convention and they are likely to do so again with the GOP. I'm a bored reporter, I wander out of the convention center and bam! Three classic New York characters all of whom are voting against Bush.

Candidate Kids and the "Youth" Vote

Getting young people out to vote and to vote for Kerry is a cause close to my own heart. Now I'm all for the Kerry daughters having a high profile, but the campaign really does need to talk about issues. There is no young person department in the issues section of the Kerry website (Don't me started on the Bush site.) Still Kerry does seem to be winning. The Kerry daughters and step-sons are much better on the campaign trail than the Bush Twins, but that only gets you so far.

Also how slow is the news when Stealing Lawn Signs is the political headline on Yahoo!

Stuff

Takedown of Bush's sense of humor here.

How nice. And yet, how odd. Dubya--instinctively warm? His humor--self-deprecating? The wit--rapier? Bush had clearly inherited plenty of his mother's qualities, but warmth and wit--well, hadn't Barbara shown a certain restraint in expressing these gifts? The situation was confusing. Was Dubya actually funny? Or had the media's repeated pronouncements that he was funny become self-fulfilling?

You may ask, What does that matter? There is no angle that Craigorian Chant will not pursue. Tell a friend.

Team U.S. Basketball got beat by Lithuania over the weekend. Lithuania has a population of less than 4 million people. That's less than the city of LA. Still have not come up with a way to blame Bush for this.

Oh, and because the Kerry campaign asked me personally to post this link, here is the Kerry response to the attacks on his war record.

Shameless Self-Promotion Week

We are kicking off shameless self-promotion week here at Craigorian Chant. As I have watched the hit counter on the site continue to rise I have had two thoughts: Thank you guys for reading me and I want more of this. Therefore I urge all you readers to spread the word. Tell people about the site. Urge them to visit. Also e-mail or post any ideas that you may have to promote the site. The Craigorian Chant legal team is currently working on ways of getting Fox News to sue us. Any other ideas would be welcomed. Now we return to regular programming.

Bush, Kerry and Vietnam

So, I guess we have to talk about the "Swift Boats veteran's for truth" thing. Some republican tools who "served with John Kerry" i.e. they were somewhere in Vietnam the same time Kerry was, are putting out a bunch of lies such as Kerry didn't earn his medals and so on. The Sunday Morning talk shows were filled with this stuff. Now, I have been debating with friends as to whether this is really going to hurt Kerry and help Bush. After all, when the smoke clears most people will come away with the following facts:

Kerry = War Hero
Bush = Not so Much

So, a lot of people I talk to wonder if this is convincing anybody. I think we might not be understanding the tactic. This attack is more about reinforcing conservatives for Bush than convincing anybody. I got this via Political Animal a piece in the Weekly Standard.

Republicans have no such luck this time, and so they scramble to reassure themselves that they nevertheless are doing the right thing, voting against a war hero. The simplest way to do this is to convince themselves that the war hero isn't really a war hero. If sufficient doubt about Kerry's record can be raised, we can vote for Bush without remorse. But the calculations are transparently desperate. Reading some of the anti-Kerry attacks over the last several weeks, you might conclude that this is the new conservative position: A veteran who volunteered for combat duty, spent four months under fire in Vietnam, and then exaggerated a bit so he could go home early is the inferior, morally and otherwise, of a man who had his father pull strings so he wouldn't have to go to Vietnam in the first place.

Needless to say, the proposition will be a hard sell in those dim and tiny reaches of the electorate where voters have yet to make up their minds. Indeed, it's far more likely that moderates and fence-sitters will be disgusted by the lengths to which partisans will go to discredit a rival. But this anti-Kerry campaign is not designed to win undecided votes. It's designed to reassure uneasy minds.

Hard-core pro-military Republicans cannot vote against a war hero without their heads exploding. They need lies about Kerry in order to justify themselves. These guys are fueled by an undying rage. They have to hate Kerry, 'cause they will never love Bush.

Well, at least...No!

Now I know that I have been rather negative about Iraq here at Craigorian Chant what with all the death and the fact we seem to have lost 9 billion in reconstruction money. But I do have some good news to report. The Iraqi soccer team has scored two major upsets in the Olympics and made the quarterfinals. Bush has run a commercial boosting the fact that Iraq and Afghanistan are competing as "democracies." The Iraqi soccer team is pissed at Bush.

"Iraq as a team does not want Mr. Bush to use us for the presidential campaign," Sadir told SI.com through a translator, speaking calmly and directly. "He can find another way to advertise himself."

Manajid, 22, who nearly scored his own goal with a driven header on Wednesday, hails from the city of Fallujah. He says coalition forces killed Manajid's cousin, Omar Jabbar al-Aziz, who was fighting as an insurgent, and several of his friends. In fact, Manajid says, if he were not playing soccer he would "for sure" be fighting as part of the resistance.

The Iraqi-American community has also soured on the occupation.

Chanting "Get out of Najaf, get out of Iraq," Iraqi-Americans assembled Friday to protest fighting in the Islamic holy city and demand sooner-than-scheduled elections in their native country.

"Stop the guns from talking and let's negotiate!" Imam Husham Al-Husainy, leader of the Karbalaa Islamic Educational Center, shouted through a bullhorn while leading 50 men and boys as young as 5 in the peaceable, hour-long demonstration

So when someone says "Well, in Iraq, at least we..." You can cut them off with a firm "No!" even before you hear what they have to say. It will be wrong I'm certain.

More on Message

I was so caught up in the sight of chicks with swords yesterday that I didn't spend the time I should have on the competing messages of the two campaigns. The website from yesterday's post is just the beginning. 75% of Bush ads attack Kerry (27% of Kerry ads attack Bush.) Bush does not just rely on Cheney and front groups. He is attacking Kerry from the stump in very personal and, might I add, not very presidential terms. Kerry is critical of Bush, but always in policy terms and always with that sad Kerry dignity, like he's president already. TAP has a good take on all of this:

In Traverse City, Michigan, on Monday, Bush mocked Kerry for spending too much time in Hollywood, selecting a trial lawyer as his running-mate, wanting to raise taxes, not taking a firm stand on the diversion of Great Lakes water, changing his mind on the war on Iraq, “playing politics with the judicial system,” and offering a “complicated” explanation about his vote against the $87 billion appropriation for Iraq. And that was just in one stump speech.

Note the key word "mocked." Bush is mocking Kerry from behind the Presidential seal. Leno mocks. I mock. Presidents don't mock. The President has made mocking the centerpiece of his reelection campaign. Why is Bush doing this? Simple, because he has to:

Like Carter, Bush is an embattled incumbent elected without a mandate and stuck trying to defend a failed presidency...There's only one strategy for an incumbent president(Faced with that situation): attack. Since the American people seem to want to hire someone else for the job, the embattled incumbent has no choice but to convince them that the only other available candidate is totally unfit for the position.

Pay no attention to that failed Presidency behind the curtain.

Women's Saber is my new Favorite Sport.

So, I finally got to see what real Olympic fencing is like. It is really fast. I mean blindingly fast. Have to show each touch in slow motion just to get an idea of what the hell happened fast. It is not the slow tink, tink, tink like when Inigo Montoya and Zorro do it. And for a sport that seems to be all about honor and stuff they sure do celebrate a lot. Also, because we are all about USA! USA! here at Craigorian Chant it is important to note that the U.S. took both the Gold and Bronze in Women's Saber. Mariel Zagunis, a 19-year old with a blond pony-tail and the speed and reflexes of a rattlesnake beat some foreigner 15-9 to win gold and then got tossed in the air by the rest of the US team.

In politics -- all you need to know about the messages of the two campaigns can be seen on their websites.

Kerry: "I will make the country better so vote for me."
Bush: "Kerry sucks so vote for me."

Protests, Jews and Presidential Intelligence

No, none of these subjects are related but I do have interesting links for all 3 topics. So, despite the blank check the Bush admin has given Israel to crack down, Jews have not abandoned Democrats to support Bush. Money quote from TNR on the subject:

I'd say with the exception of their efforts to woo Jews, blacks, Hispanics, and Catholics, Karl Rove's and George W. Bush's strategy to bring traditionally Democratic groups into the Republican fold is going swimmingly

Next we have worries that Anti-Bush protests may help the GOP during the New York GOP convention.

Milton Glaser, the legendary graphic designer behind the I Love New York logo, has thought about this prospect a lot. He knows the power of images, and he's scared that pictures of rampaging protesters flashing on the nation's TV screens during the Republican National Convention will be a catastrophe.

"A lot of people in this town are very angry," he says. "When you have so many angry people up against the police, without any question violence will occur. If this turns out to be the visual material that the country is looking at, there's just the chance that there will be an incremental turn towards Bush."

Me, I'm not so sure that protests will help the GOP. "Convention racked by protests" can not be a good headline four days in a row.

Finally, everyone should read Matthew Yglesias on the "Brain Thing." Turns out it really does matter if the President is smart or not.

Olympic Blogging

So, I watched a bunch of Olympics on TV over the weekend. The problem with the Olympics is that you have to sit through the dreck NBC comes up with to get to some genuinely great sports moments. I, for one, am a complete sucker for the parade of nations. You can keep the rest of the interpretive dance crap that happens in the opening ceremonies. I just get the biggest kick out of some small island nation with 3 athletes that have no chance to win a thing and yet are having the time of their lives. Also, the fact that NBC is putting obscure sports on it's cable stations means I will finally get to see real fencing on TV. I loving sword fights in movies. ("You seem a decent fellow, I hate to kill you.") I get to see it for real. Tomorrow 4-6 on Bravo!

P.S. Can't pass on politics. Bush so bad anarchists may vote.
Broder thinks Bush will lose. Broder is an old school Washington reporter, I think he covered Truman. He is the voice of conventional wisdom in DC. This is a good thing. If CW has Bush losing, Republicans will panic and the coverage will change.

Things I Am Looking For

A person who voted for Gore in 2000 but is voting for Bush in 2004. The Note was having a hard time finding them, but has recently been getting e-mails.

Any ideas for us not to fuck up Iraq any more. Not a way to bring peace and prosperity, just to stop digging the goddamn hole.

A way to blame the Bush administration for the fact that the US basketball team has apparently forgotten how to play basketball.

A Shout Out

One of the benefits of this massive media platform that I now possess is the power to give shout outs. Today's shout out goes to Laura McConnell, a rather cool person, who has recently signed on as Craigorian Chant's copy editor. Any improvement that readers may have noticed in recent posts is entirely due to her good work. Laura has gotten a letter to the editor printed in her local paper. It kicks some ass on the subject of gay marriage. Nice job all around, Laura.


Also, shout-outs to Chris and Tyler who have put up posts this week.

Sensitive/Not Sensitive

So Kerry puts out this line:

I believe I can fight a more effective, more thoughtful, more strategic, more proactive, more sensitive war on terror that reaches out to other nations and brings them to our side and lives up to American values in history.

So, Dick "Go Fuck Yourself" Cheney then attacks the "sensitive" part of the speech. He is basically calling Kerry a girl:

A sensitive war will not destroy the evil men who killed 3,000 Americans and who seek the chemical, nuclear and biological weapons to kill hundreds of thousands more. The men who beheaded Daniel Pearl and Paul Johnson will not be impressed by our sensitivity.

Now, the Daily Show had the best counter to this with 1. Mocking and 2. Pointing out that Bush has used the word "sensitive" in speeches before. Libral Oasis has a roundup of Bushies that have used the word "sensitive" in talking about foriegn policy.

Now to get to the Bigger Issue. Bush is not smart. No one on his team can make the case he is smart. Bush can be tough. So he is trying to frame this debate as "Weak and Smart" verses "Tough and um...Simple." That's why they are trying make a big deal of "sensitive." It's the "I have no brain but I can kick your ass" form of foriegn policy.

By the way..........

I'm not gay.... So many people here know my situation, its never been a secret. I have a girlfriend, and I've had girlfriends in the past.

Great Day to be Gay!

I think for gay Americans today's events (and those in the last few days) have been especially encouraging! I think we as Americans are finally accepting their lifestyle!

So to summarize I'm going to give four reasons why it's good to be gay in America!

one

two

three

four (hey we in Ma-Zoura ain't too much differn' than u sa-fis-tacated Cala-for-nains...)

bonus!

Beat this Horse

I've advanced this theory before and it's good to see some support. In Salon:

The hand-over marked a turning point in the level and intensity of media interest, which sharply decreased, particularly on the 24-hour cable news channels.

"The situation in Iraq right now is not as bad as the news media are portraying it to be. It's worse. Most Iraqis aren't seeing the improvements they had hoped for, and they're not blaming the guerrillas -- they're blaming the Americans. Sovereignty seems to have had zero effect on this equation."

If you're President Bush and you see headlines about Martha Stewart and Laci Peterson, you've got to count yourself lucky, because that means the focus is no longer on Iraq."

I will say it again. The more the real world is talked about, the worse things are for Bush.

Today's Key Trend

Today's key trend to indicate inevitable Kerry victory is web traffic. According to Nielson/Netratings the Kerry website is the "Number 1 fastest growing website." Kerry traffic grew by 191% while traffic to the RNC grew by a paltry 32%. This is of course a sign of an Inevitable Kerry Victory.

I ripped the link off the Political Wire, which is a better site then mine and gets more traffic too.

Questions Answered

So, people ask me "Craig, what can I do to affect the outcome of the upcoming election, likely to be the most important one in our lifetimes?" To which I now have a clear answer: Shop at Costco.

Slate's Moneybox has a great story up on the difference between Costco and Walmart. Some highlights:

Costco: Mostly in Blue States.
Walmart: Mostly in Red States.

Costco: Executives give money to Dems
Walmart: Executives give money to Reps

Costco labor practices: Not Evil
Walmart labor practices: Evil

So shopping at Costco helps the forces of light and progress. The good news is that Costco has been doing better as of late.

Daily Show Meets Spin

A friend of mine from Stanford, Bryan Keefer, has recently co-written a book called All the President's Spin along with his fellow Spinsanity web site contributors. He will be speaking with Jon Stewart on the Daily Show tomorrow (Thursday August 12).

I once tried to set my sister up with Bryan -- he and I went on a double date with my sister and a friend of hers to a Cake concert in Sacramento. Vanessa sometimes complains that I never tried to set her up with anyone good. (Sorry, Craig.) To her I point out that the other guests on the Daily Show this week were Tom Cruise and Bill Clinton.

Republicans are UnCool part 7

So, there is this story on the music and entertainment that we can expect at the Republican National Convention at the end of the month. To sum up:

He said yesterday that he expected the convention to be heavy with gospel, country and Broadway music, and with patriotic music. He said there would be several renditions of the national anthem as well.

Which brings me to just how uncool the Republicans are compared to the Democrats. Showtunes? Just how many renditions of the national anthem do they want to sit through? I mean the DNC had the Black Eyed Peas for God's sake.

This returns me to a long-standing theme here at Craigorian Chant: Laying aside unimportant stuff like war and taxes, Democrats will always be cooler than Republicans. There are some basic demographic facts that cause this. Republicans simply have no gay people, black people, or young people. This renders them physically incapable of being cool. Sad, but true.

Great Bodies in History

Now, right in the middle of ripping the Illinois Republican for drafting the lunatic Alan Keyes to run for Senate, Republican consultant Mike Murphy in the conservative Weekly Standard puts out this gem when talking about former candidate Mike Ryan:

Alas, he was also tangled up in a messy divorce with formidable Star Trek actress Jeri Ryan, better known as "Seven of Nine"--and every bit as fondly known to young boys of this generation as Julie Newmar's Catwoman was to boys of my own.

This will be the truest thing you will find in the Weekly Standard all year.

What has Been Made

Now, I'm not shy about pointing out the massive clusterfuck that our intervention in Iraq has become, but it is important to note that there was there was the basic good act of removing Saddam from power. If there is one thing I want to bring to modern liberalism is the old idea that liberalism is about killing fascists. Woody's old guitar and me.

That said, if we got rid of Saddam, the relevant question is what did we replace him with? The answer is Ayad Allawi. Who is Ayad Allawi? Well, it seems he is a bit of a thug. He is a fomer Saddam hit man who fell out with Saddam in the 1960's. There are all kinds of rumors swirling around that he has personally executed suspected Iraqi insurgents. His most recent move has been to shut down Al Jazeera's Bureau in Baghdad. Now, a guy who's first reaction to adversity is to shut down media that troubles him is not a guy who will help bring democracy to Iraq.

But at least he is not as bad as Saddam, you say?

But Saddam wasn't as bad as Saddam when he first started.

We made this guy. A lot of blood was shed to make him and a lot is being shed to keep him in power. We have to have higher standards than "Better than Saddam."

Strategery

Because I live for you, the reader, I shall answer a reader request. Chris CB asks:

If you were the campaign manager for the Kerry campaign, what would your
strategy for the election be. Maybe you could also do another post on
if you were Bush's manger what would you do. What are their
liabilities, what are their strong points, how should they be appealing
to the American people, etc.

Ok, here are the official Craigorian Chant Keys to Victory

It is important to note that Kerry and Bush are going after a certain segment of the population that are swing voters. To oversimplify, these voters are white men, less well off and more culturally conservative than the Nation as a whole. Therefore, Kerry must do things to win these folks over that will annoy liberals.

Kerry must remind people every chance he gets that he is
1. A decorated War Vet
2. A hunter
3. A manly man
And of course remind people at every given opportunity that the economy sucks, Iraq has gone off the rails, health care costs are going up, etc, etc, etc. Remember who Kerry is going after. He will not win these folks over with his support for abortion rights, civil unions for gay couples, or gun control. So while Kerry will not change his positions on these things he will not talk about them much.

Bush's Answer:
As Joe Kline wrote in TIME, Bush has two foes: Kerry and reality. Bush cannot make a case for re-election based on the real world. So he must win in the campaign world. The first step is to attack Kerry.

Bush will try and portray him as
1. Soft on crime
2. Soft on terrorism
3. Soft in general

Second, the Bush campaign will do all it can to get down in the mud of the day-to-day campaign. So expect lots of stuff on Theresa's mouth and money, picking apart Senate votes by the two Johns, and so on. Anything that keeps attention off the two real important numbers: Jobs created and Iraq casualties. One of the Kerry campaign's most important jobs is to not make mistakes and give the Bush campaign opportunities

So to sum up:
Kerry play error-free ball, prove yourself to the white working class and keep the real world in view.

Bush tear Kerry down and hide those annoying real world facts.

Friday Roundup

A little bit of everything to see you through the weekend.

Job numbers out today. They sort of suck. Don't take my word for it. Here is a former Secretary of Labor.

Alan Keyes gets to be the one who gets crushed by Obama. This race will be remembered as a historic showdown between two great African-American orators, one a future President, another a raving loon.

Massive street battles in Iraq. Total U.S. dead in Iraq to date: 925.

Bush running on campaign slogan of "results matter."

Paul Krugman says all you need to hear about it.

Have a good weekend.

Quote of the Day

"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we," Bush said. "They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we."

George W Bush

Updated: Here is a quicktime video of the quote courtesy of Michael Moore.

You are Doomed, Bush, for the Boss is on our Side.

Anyone who has heard The Boss's music knew that he is no conservative. But now he is really getting into this whole politics thing. He and a bunch of other rockers (R.E.M!, Dave Matthews Band!) are doing a tour of battleground States for Move On and ACT to raise money to throw the bums out. Do not ever forget that if you are a democrat you are with the party of cool people. Republicans can be many things, but they will never be cool. By the way, no post on Springsteen and politics is complete without linking to Altercation. Eric Alterman has written a book on Bruce (which I have not read) and a few books on politics (which I have). So, he is the man to check in with to talk about Springsteen and politics.

Polls are Here! If You Look Close They are Good.

So, the first round of post-DNC polling is out. One thing you will not find is a really big jump for Kerry in the the Bush-Kerry match-up. The best jump is in the ABC poll where Kerry went from being down 48-46 to being up 50-44. That's a swing of 8 points. Other polls had less of a "bounce" and CNN/Gallup had Kerry losing ground! Ahhh. But, before you jump out a window, there is some good news. To find the good news you have to look at other questions that the poll asks. Slate has a good write-up on this. Highlights: Kerry greatly improved his overall approval ratings, and his rating on such issues as having "the personality and leadership qualities a president should have" and "confident in his ability to handle such a crisis." Also DailyKos has some State polls where Kerry did pick up some ground in the polls. In Pennsylvania Kerry went from up 1 to up 12! And in Tennessee he went from down 10 to down 2! These look more like the classic "bounce" that a candidate gets after a convention. As per my earlier post this week the "Swing States" are getting all the attention so maybe they are getting all the bounce.

I put my tin foil hat around here somewhere.

I must say I thought Dean went a little far when he said the Bush admin put out the terror alert for political reasons. But, then I see this story:

U.S. officials say the detailed surveillance photos and documents that prompted higher terror warnings dated from as far back as 2000 and 2001, and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said Tuesday the government concluded "it was essential" to publicize it and raise the terror alert.

They put out a terror alert based on data that was 4 years old! They just had to put out a massive alert the day after Kerry's big day based on data that was 4 years old! Next, we will put Hawaii on orange alert based on information that shows Japan might be up to something.

In other news, 9% of Americans abuse alcohol and nearly 15 percent have a personality disorder, according to a U.S. government survey. If I keep reading stories like this terror alert I just might join them.

Political Education 101

I have recently received from some Craigorian Chant readers (I have readers, happy dance!) requests to explain this whole Red State/Blue State/Swing State thing. So, rather than try and understand weird polling results or worry about terrorism, I will try and explain what's up with Red States/Blue States/Swing States. First of all, Red States/Blue States refer to this election map of 2000. Blue States are states that Gore carried and Red States are states that Bush won. The reason we care is that states vote in the electoral college and actually pick the president. It is possible to win the popular vote and lose the state by state contest, a fact which keeps Al Gore awake at 3:00 a.m. to this very day. For an exploration of the cultural differences between red and blue read this guy. Swing states refer to states that could go either to Bush or Kerry in the coming election. Thus, they get all the attention as far as advertising, candidate stops and so on. So, by an accident of demographics, geography, etc., some states are going to get all the attention. The classic swing states are in the Industrial Mid-west: Pennsylvania, Michigan and most of all, Ohio. Gore won the first two by 4 points and lost Ohio by 4. These states are important because they have a lot of electoral College votes. Ohio has 21 (You need 270 to win.) while New Hampshire, which was also close (Bush won by 1), only has 4 electoral votes. Thus, something like the GDP of Sweden will be spent in places like Cleveland and Pittsburgh on ads. A good chunk of the country is securely in the hands of one of the parties. California, New York and most of New England are sure-fire Kerry states and Texas, the deep South and the Mountain West will surely go for Bush unless he suffers a total election landslide. So people like me in California will hardly ever see the campaigns. Other swing states may include the Southwest and the Pacific Northwest. I put may be swing here because a lot of factors go into where these states end up. If Latinos go big for Kerry then the southwest could be his going away. If Nader gets on the ballot in the Pacific Northwest he could steal tree-hugger votes from Kerry. How will the Edwards pick affect North Carolina? There is also a lot of strategy that goes into this. Look for head fakes. Kerry does not have a good chance in Colorado and Virginia and Bush has no real shot at New Jersey but they have both made a show of campaigning in those states to make the other side play defense. But, really, who are we kidding? It's all going to come down to Florida again and the rest is just noise.

Any questions?

Quote of the Day, Maybe Quote of the Week.


"If you want change in this country, you ought to vote for President Bush."

--Matthew Dowd, Bush/Cheney Strategist, Fox News Sunday. via Atrios

Now, Dowd is the President's poll guy, and not stupid, despite your initial reaction to this quote. He reads polls saying that most Americans are not happy with the "direction the country is heading" and "want change." So Bush is change. You guys want change, Bush is change. Just one small problem: Bush is the incumbent. You want change you, throw his butt out. Bush is the one currently picking the direction of the country. You want change you bring in Kerry.

Make that quote of the Month.

Must...Wait...For...Real...Poll.

Newsweek has a poll out showing a very small bounce for Kerry. Problem: half of poll taken before Kerry's speech. This Zogby poll taken during the convention week has Kerry up 5 points. The really interesting thing from this poll is that people who did not vote in 2000 favor Kerry 50%-25%. Young (18-29) people favor him over Bush 53% to 33%. Single people favor him by 69% to 19%! So if you know any young, single women who did not vote in 2000, send them to me. I need a date. Also, get them to vote. Odds are, you will be helping the cause.

Quote of the Day

"Where are the balloons? We need more balloons coming down. More balloons! More balloons! What's that fucking guy doing up there?!"

One of the Convention Directors picked up live on CNN.

Well I am Convinced

Gee, I wasn't sure if I was going to vote for this Kerry fellow, but after seeing that speech last night, I think I have finally made up my mind. But, seriously folks, I think that was a pretty damn fine speech last night and the pundits agree with me. I mean you're rooting for the guy to come up big and I've heard both stellar speeches and stinkers from Kerry so there was a bit a drama leading up to this speech. Does anybody know anybody who changed their mind? I am now feeling an overwhelming craving for a poll. Will Kerry's numbers go up? How much? I need to know to now, damn you!

In other news, I can safely say that the Kerry sisters are both hot and a tremendous political asset to their Dad. Their intro bits were great. Well done, funny, and totally good for Kerry. I think I'm in love.

Quote of the Day

"You have a stunningly developed political mind, and I fear you."

Chris Matthews talking to Ben Affleck on HardBall.

Seriously, I saw Ben on a couple of shows and he did not suck at all at being a pundit.

This Internet is here to Stay

So, I missed watching any of the convention last night. Saw the new Bourne movie instead. Quick review: Damn Good. I might right a long review if I get tired of political posting. However, so many people are watching, either on TV or at the convention and writing it up on the Internet, I can just feed off the commentary and never have to tune in the real stuff. So, to sum up: Mixed reviews for the next Vice-President's speech. The networks when into a tizzy because Al Sharpton went off script and went over time. It's not surprising considering Sharpton's whole campaign seems designed to get him this speaking spot. I heard Fox jerk, Sean Hannity, being an amazing ass with Jimmy Hoffa Jr. on the radio yesterday afternoon, Gladfly has pics. Yes, Hoffa is the son of that Jimmy Hoffa and is the current head of the Teamsters Union. I would not be surprised to see Hannity face down in a ditch somewhere.

One thing that is pointed out a lot is that the networks are only covering 3 hours total of the convention and same for the Republicans in New York. But so many other forms of media - radio, cable, and Craigorian Chant are talking about this that it's bound to reach a lot of people.

In other news, incomes fell two years in a row. Great economy you got there Bush.

Barack Obama is Cooler than You.

Everyone is all a-swoon over Barack Obama, the next Senator from the great State of Illinois. He gave a hell of a speech last night that even had the Fox news guys singing his praises. Pandagon had the best line:

You know how good this speech is? It will be on rap albums next year, during the tracks that are trying to be socially conscious.

By the way, a bunch of bloggers like Pandagon got to go to the big show. Even the GOP is getting in on the act. I guess I didn't get an invite because they are looking for people who can spell or something.

Seen Any Good Speeches Lately?

Gore good, Carter good, Clinton very good. One thing that people never realize when they talk about "stiff" Gore and "Got his ass handed to him by Reagan" Carter is, these guys are actually very good at what they do. Just think about how many bad speeches and speakers you have seen in your life. My college graduation speaker was terrible and my sister's was much, much worse. This is a hard thing to do. People like Gore suffer because they get compared to past Presidents like Reagan and Kennedy who were the greatest American speakers ever. Gore and Carter both got to the big dance and they both "won" it once.

Every speech I have ever seen Al Gore do included some very funny jokes. "But you know the old saying: you win some, you lose some. And then, there's that little-known third category," is only the latest. But every time some pundit comes on afterwards and acts surprised that Gore can be funny.

TPM has a good summary of the tone of the convention and some good thoughts on the balance between Bush bashing and Kerry boosting.

Among Democrats, the rejection of this president is so total, exists on so many different levels, and is so fused into their understanding of all the major issues facing the country, that it doesn't even need to be explicitly evoked. The headline of Susan Page's piece in USA Today reads: "Speakers offer few barbs, try to stay warm and fuzzy." But the primetime speeches were actually brimming with barbs, and rather jagged ones at that. They were just woven into the fabric of the speeches, fused into rough-sketched discussions of policy, or paeans to Kerry.

We have moved into a whole new realm of Bush bashing. It's zen bashing.

The Convention is Coming, the Convention is Coming!

Oooo, parties. While I have never been to a national covention, I have been to the California Dem Convention and, trust me, it's all about scoring good parties with the cool people and best food.

Michael Kinsley does defense of Liberalism so fricken well.

George McGovern, children, was a senator from South Dakota (a region of the upper west side of Manhattan in the geographical mythology of Democratic Party critics) and the Democratic presidential candidate in 1972. He was, and is, a left-liberal. The Republican offering that year was Richard Nixon (with Spiro Agnew for dessert), but it is the Democrats who have been apologizing for their choice ever since...
Sure, it might have made the crucial difference if Gore had been just a bit more moderate in this or that, or if voters watching the Democratic convention had heard yet another heartfelt assurance that the party had learned its lesson and had written "I will not be McGovernite" on the board a thousand more times. But the party that gets the most votes is not "out of the mainstream," whether getting the most votes is enough to win the election or not.

Every time you hear a Hardball pundit say "moderate" take a drink.

Ooooo Bono sighting!

Bono, who has worked almost exclusively with Republicans in the last few years to increase the amount of money spent on fighting AIDS, will be making the rounds over the next few days to schmooze Democrats.

If the man can get AIDS funding and Debt relief out of Jesse Helms and W, John Kerry will be absolutely helpless in the face of his magic powers.

Did Clinton Make it Easier for Iraq to Be Sold?

Laws of Unintended Consequences. I have previously written on the humanitarian interventions of the Clinton years, citing Kosovo as a clear success with no U.S. combat deaths and Milosovich on trial. What didn't occur to me until now is that this kind of success could make it easier to sell Iraq. This from Matt Yglesias:

a person of a certain age (say, my age) would have had no examples of military failures that resulted in serious US casualties, and a number of instances where failure to intervene (either at all, or more forcefully, or more swiftly) had contributed to bad outcomes. So even though the Iraq War wasn't really like any of the intervention debates of the 1990s, all that built-in a predisposition to think that an invasion had only a small downside and possibly had a large upside.

So people (young and old) could have been thinking of "wars" like Kosovo and Gulf War I where we got ours with very few casualties. I think that lots of people were thinking that the costs of Gulf War II would be similarly low and thus supported the war and turned against it when the costs have proven to be much higher and growing.

DNC Convention Analysis

We now bring you a fresh angle for looking at the Democratic Convention which will be leading the news all this week. A top Democratic source has leaked to Craigorian Chant the delegation seating chart for the convention. (No, not really you can get it here) It is important to note that the cheering mass of people you will see on TV do not just sit anywhere, they are seated by State delegation. Everything gets stage managed by the Kerry campaign so this is a key indicator as to what states are important and which are not. To no one's surprise, Massachusetts gets the best seats in the Fleet Center, with North Carolina just to their left. Swing states such as Florida and Ohio and Missouri get all the good seats on the floor level. Big, secure, Blue States like California and New York are farther back in the stands but are right in front of the stage. Big Red States like Texas are off to the side in the back. Kentucky and Kansas, both reliable Red States are stuck way up in the rafters of the Fleet Center. The very worst seats in the place go to the delegates from States like Idaho and Mississippi. If your State hasn't gone for a Democrat in century don't expect to get yourself a good seat for the speeches.

Ok, no one is going to see my "comment" to Craig's "girlie man" post. So I'm posting this to let people know that they'll see the comment if they click on the link under Craig's post. It's not a great comment, but it's something.

Yeah, we definitely need some sort of indicator that people have left comments, like Chris said.......

Shortcuts

I, being a a rather lazy person, am always looking for shortcuts, even when it comes to feeding my political addiction. Knowing that I am serving a similarly lazy bunch of people, (after all, why are you reading this Blog when you should be working!) I now present you a pair of shortcuts to understanding current events. If these helpfully summaries by guys smarter than I am prove too lengthy I have provided one sentence summaries of the summaries.

Rather than pore over polling results to determine who is doing in the election race read this summary by Ruy Teixeira. Short version: Kerry doing well but needs to come up with an Iraq plan and tell us about it.

Instead of reading all 516 pages of the 9/11 commission report read this summary by Kevin Drum. Short version: Lots of people to blame, but it is time to get off our asses and put some reforms in place.

Bush Wants to Raise Your Taxes

It's true. Read all about it here. Bush killed a tax cut measure because Democrats would vote for it and to move a vote closer to the November elections. I say this man does not deserve your vote. Read Pandagon for more.

In other news Bush is getting crushed among Latino Voters. One thing I've always noticed about polls like this is that Latinos always aprove of the Iraq war at a much greater rate than the general population. This is true now and was true back when a majority supported the war. Could it be that the Iraq war is screwing up Karl Rove's carefully laid plan to bring in more Latinos for Bush (Viva Bush!)

Slow News Day

Point for Bush Twin in hotness race: cute tongue.

Iraq: Still a mess. Six more abductions, U.S. deaths now over 900, Iraq has a 70% unemployment rate!

Democrats now have more money than God. Good Grief, people really hate Bush.

California Politics

So Governator gets into trouble over calling Democratic legislators "girly men." This comes from a dispute over the budget. Political Animal speculates that the Governor Bench Press may be trying to pick a fight to score some seats in November.

And all followed up with his juvenile "girlie men" comments and threats to campaign against any Democrat who doesn't toe the governor's line. It's hard to draw any conclusion except that he wants budget talks to fail and is hoping to use that for partisan gains in November.
Which might very well be the answer. Arnold might be playing a longer and riskier game than anyone thinks, mostly designed to make his future easier - especially since next year's budget is going to make this year's look like a stroll in the park. And by waving a red flag in front of the Democratic bulls, he might be hoping to get them to lose their tempers and seal their own doom.

I think that he may be right about the tactics, but this strategy is sure to fail. The reason: gerrymandering. CA legislator districts are gerrymandering within an inch of their life. This means that almost all incumbents, both D and R are secure. There is not one competitive Federal House race in CA this year. This also means that the Dem majority in the State Assembly and Senate are secure. Governor Biceps can pick all the fights he wants, he is not going to win a thing.

Funny, Not Funny

Funny.

Not Funny.

Funny.

Not Funny.

We like you give you some sugar with your medicine here at Craigorian Chant.

Bush Verses Reality

Fred Kaplan in Slate outlines the difference between Bush's speech and well, the real world.

It's a very effective speech (the Oak Ridge scientists greeted each repetition with stormy applause), unless you take a closer look at the examples it cites—in which case questions of comparative safety (are you safer now than you were three years ago?) seem at best ambiguous and in some cases downright depressing.

The more time spent looking at the world, the worst the case for Bush is.

Notable Groups of Voters that Bush is Losing

Gay Republicans
Libertarians
American Muslims

Now, these are all groups who voted for Bush the last time around and who have a very good chance to not vote for him this time around. Keep in mind that Bush lost the popular vote by half a million votes the last time around. The three groups I list here account for a few million each. Bush has to make up these numbers from somewhere or he is doomed.

Victor Davis Hanson and the Mis-Use of Historic Metaphor

One of the things I'm always looking for when I'm wasting time surfing for politics is conservative writers who piss me off in intellectually stimulating ways. It's no fun to get pissed off with nothing to say, you need stuff that makes you say "you are wrong for this reason." Which is why I am grateful for Victor Davis Hanson. He is professor of history/military science at Fresno State and writes for National Review Online. I really liked his book Ripples of Battle which talked about social and cultural effects of battles. That said, his column today is all wrong. Basically, he is saying that the screw-ups and casualties of the Iraq war are not so bad if you compare them to the screw-ups and casualties of WW2. I love historic metaphor as much as the next guy but Iraq is totally different from WW2! If we took casualties at the rate we did in Germany in 1944 then every U.S. soldier in Iraq would be dead or wounded by now. World War Two was the largest, deadliest, most terrible conflict in the history of the world, any modern conflict and casualty count would look miniscule by comparison. Also I have a real problem with this part:

In other words, Kerry and Edwards sense that Iraq has had some strange - but as yet not fully understood - positive effects that are just beginning to ripple out.

First of all, he is putting thoughts in the heads of guys, my guys in fact, that he has no basis for. I don't go saying "Bush senses that his tax policy is evil." Second, POSITIVE EFFECTS holy crap - torture, looting, car bombs, black-outs, holy shrines being damaged and did I mention the torture! There are effects radiating out, just nothing that I would call positive.

Bush Panic Watch

The paper of record has a story on the rumors that Cheney is going to be dumped.

TNR has some nice comments on the fact that Bush is appealing to conservatives and how that can not be good for him.

Mike Ditka rules out Senate run. While this is good for Dems, I sense that a Ditka campaign would provide a lot of material.

To sum up: inevitable Kerry win now approaching, Dems to gain control of Senate for good measure.

The Hotness Debate

Via Wonkette I see that there is debate under way on who is hotter: The Bush twins or the Kerry sisters? Now my own view on the subject is well known. I would like to take this opportunity to encourage the posting of comments. We have a few readers now and I wish to hear from you. Click on the # at the bottom of this post, then click on Post a Comment (The Craigorian Chant technical staff is working on a better way to do this). Tell me who you think is hotter and why. Follow the links at the top of this post for some pictures. Craigorian Chant currently lacks picture posting capability, but the staff is working on it.

Update: I got a hot tip. USAToday has a profile of the Kerry sisters. Notable parts:

Alexandra, the tall brunette with model looks

If USAToday says she's hot, she's hot.

Then there was the tabloid rumor in May that linked Vanessa to actor Ben Affleck after they made campaign appearances together, a rumor she laughs off.

"I can only assume (the rumor) was put out there by a Republican, as both women, in fact, clearly have better taste than that," Affleck jokes by e-mail. Vanessa and Alexandra "are remarkably grounded, well-rounded, down-to-earth people."

Ben Affleck has seen some major tail in his day and if he signs off on these women it's good enough for me.

The Kerry sisters won't say who, if anyone, they are dating.

Quote of the Day

While we are on the topic of needing to save people we never heard of before, I bring you the quote of the day:

War is God's way of teaching Americans Geography. - Ambrose Bierce

Why Bush's Screw-ups Could Set Back Human Rights

In a post on Sunday I went into the Bush administration backing ass-backwards into a human rights justification for the war in Iraq. This justification is of course bunk. The reason this argument should be beaten down with all deliberate speed is that the current Iraq war should not be used to tarnish the good name of humanitarian intervention. Right now 54% of Americans think Iraq was a mistake. When the next awfulness strikes and only American power can stop the killing, it is important that Iraq not be cited as a bad human rights intervention. Somalia is an example of a bad humanitarian intervention, what with "Black Hawk Down" and all. Kosovo is example of a success (no U.S. combat deaths, ethnic cleansing ended, Milosevic on trial) Iraq should not be made to tip the balance. Iraq is a massive screw-up, but it is not a screwed-up humanitarian intervention.

Quote of the Day

Bush has faced two opponents: Kerry and reality. And reality has been the tougher foe.

Joel Kline in this weeks Time. The rest of column is a pretty good summary of where things stand. The more this campaign revolves about what is really happening in the world the worst it is for Bush.