Pandagon has a good post up today about the real problem that Bush has:
The underlying issue, which is going to keep foiling our every foreign policy whim, is that foreign populations have begun to hate us. A lot. That means foreign governments can curry favor with their citizenry by standing up to us, by opposing us, by obstructing us and by fighting our priorities. Their incentives lead them to block our projects and ignore our criticisms, not the other way around. And if that remains the case, we're in real trouble.
America is going to have a hell of a time making anybody listen to us because there's a tremendous incentive for foreign leaders to cross us. After all, Democracy has already marched into many of these capitals, and these Presidents and Prime Ministers want the approval ratings. Proving that they won't back down to the hated Americans is one easy way to get them.
American foreign policy for the last 200 years has been to promote democracy in other nations. While we haven't been perfect, there are now a hell of a lot of democracies out there. In fact, the vast majority of the world's cultural, economic, and military resources are in the hands of democratically elected governments. That's why Bush being hated abroad is such a problem. Cooperating with Bush really hurts foreign leaders at home. Being against US foreign policy is a winning election issue almost everywhere these days. And elections are happening everywhere. That has real consequences that will cost the US soldiers, money and diplomatic capital. It makes every US foreign policy goal harder to reach and these goals are damn important.
November 12, 2004
November 11, 2004
What I Meant to Say Was
In no way does "less nutty than John Ashcroft" make you a good pick. For a short background on why Alberto Gonzales is not the man you want safeguarding the civil liberties of the nation go here. For the long version go here. If the Senate Dems can get their act together after the late unfortunate events, they can really nail Gonzales on this stuff.
Today's must read is the Frank Rich in the NYTimes. The word of the day is values and Rich points out the obvious - Blue State values rule the culture, whatever the vote is:
The blue ascendancy is nearly as strong among Republicans as it is among Democrats. Those whose "moral values" are invested in cultural heroes like the accused loofah fetishist Bill O'Reilly and the self-gratifying drug consumer Rush Limbaugh are surely joking when they turn apoplectic over MTV. William Bennett's name is now as synonymous with Las Vegas as silicone. The Democrats' Ashton Kutcher is trumped by the Republicans' Britney Spears. Excess and vulgarity, as always, enjoy a vast, bipartisan constituency, and in a democracy no political party will ever stamp them out.
...
Values," Mr. Frank writes, "always take a backseat to the needs of money once the elections are won." Under this perennial "trick," as he calls it, Republican politicians promise to stop abortion and force the culture industry "to clean up its act" - until the votes are counted. Then they return to their higher priorities, like cutting capital gains and estate taxes. Mr. Murdoch and his fellow cultural barons - from Sumner Redstone, the Bush-endorsing C.E.O. of Viacom, to Richard Parsons, the Republican C.E.O. of Time Warner, to Jeffrey Immelt, the Bush-contributing C.E.O. of G.E. (NBC Universal) - are about to be rewarded not just with more tax breaks but also with deregulatory goodies increasing their power to market salacious entertainment. It's they, not Susan Sarandon and Bruce Springsteen, who actually set the cultural agenda Gary Bauer and company say they despise.
Blue values are winning. The election did not stop that.
Today's must read is the Frank Rich in the NYTimes. The word of the day is values and Rich points out the obvious - Blue State values rule the culture, whatever the vote is:
The blue ascendancy is nearly as strong among Republicans as it is among Democrats. Those whose "moral values" are invested in cultural heroes like the accused loofah fetishist Bill O'Reilly and the self-gratifying drug consumer Rush Limbaugh are surely joking when they turn apoplectic over MTV. William Bennett's name is now as synonymous with Las Vegas as silicone. The Democrats' Ashton Kutcher is trumped by the Republicans' Britney Spears. Excess and vulgarity, as always, enjoy a vast, bipartisan constituency, and in a democracy no political party will ever stamp them out.
...
Values," Mr. Frank writes, "always take a backseat to the needs of money once the elections are won." Under this perennial "trick," as he calls it, Republican politicians promise to stop abortion and force the culture industry "to clean up its act" - until the votes are counted. Then they return to their higher priorities, like cutting capital gains and estate taxes. Mr. Murdoch and his fellow cultural barons - from Sumner Redstone, the Bush-endorsing C.E.O. of Viacom, to Richard Parsons, the Republican C.E.O. of Time Warner, to Jeffrey Immelt, the Bush-contributing C.E.O. of G.E. (NBC Universal) - are about to be rewarded not just with more tax breaks but also with deregulatory goodies increasing their power to market salacious entertainment. It's they, not Susan Sarandon and Bruce Springsteen, who actually set the cultural agenda Gary Bauer and company say they despise.
Blue values are winning. The election did not stop that.
November 10, 2004
Moving On
Ok, let all just put down our tin foil hats and our guns and move on to other topics. We have a new Attorney General, just in the manner that I was hoping for. The new guy is nothing to write home about, but I think we can safely call him “Less nutty than John Ashcroft.”
The much heralded assault on Fallujah is going down. There will be many headlines and plenty of fireballs but:
Guerilla force flees rather than stand and be slaughtered by better-armed foe. Who could have predicted that except every goddamn person on the face of the earth.
But I’m sure this will result in a much better political situation.
Politically, the insurgents have significantly advanced what could be called the Sunni persecution strategy: That is, to gather recruits, material, and political support for the insurgency by aggravating the sense among Sunnis that they have no future in the U.S.-sponsored political process. The only Sunni political party in the Allawi government has quit in protest and the largest Sunni religious organization has formally called for their adherents to boycott the January elections. One member of the Iraqi Islamic Party who refused to resign his position--and who has since been renounced by the party--explained his decision: "It will be a big mistake not to have the Sunnis' participation in the election. We would have problems for decades to come."
Did he just say decades? He did.
The much heralded assault on Fallujah is going down. There will be many headlines and plenty of fireballs but:
Guerilla force flees rather than stand and be slaughtered by better-armed foe. Who could have predicted that except every goddamn person on the face of the earth.
But I’m sure this will result in a much better political situation.
Politically, the insurgents have significantly advanced what could be called the Sunni persecution strategy: That is, to gather recruits, material, and political support for the insurgency by aggravating the sense among Sunnis that they have no future in the U.S.-sponsored political process. The only Sunni political party in the Allawi government has quit in protest and the largest Sunni religious organization has formally called for their adherents to boycott the January elections. One member of the Iraqi Islamic Party who refused to resign his position--and who has since been renounced by the party--explained his decision: "It will be a big mistake not to have the Sunnis' participation in the election. We would have problems for decades to come."
Did he just say decades? He did.
An End To E-Voting Conspiracy Theories
I would like to address Tyler's point. The exit poll graphs that I posted are not evidence that the election was hacked. I do not really believe that the election was stolen through voter fraud. It most likely was not. I would just like to remind people of the problems with current state of electronic voting, which are the fact that it is paperless and the appearance of impropriety.
The fact that most electronic machines are paperless means that they cannot be audited and recounts cannot be undertaken. This is a problem because:
The appearance of impropriety among the companies that manufacture the voting machines undermines confidence in the results. Here is a short list:
None of these points are evidence of anything. But they definitely don't inspire confidence that the results will be accurate, which is probably the most important factor in a democracy.
Here is the reasonable response from David Dill, a professor of computer science at Stanford:
There would be not conspiracy theories if we simply provided every voter with a paper receipt which they would verify and drop into a voting box, and which could be recounted in case of a dispute.
The fact that most electronic machines are paperless means that they cannot be audited and recounts cannot be undertaken. This is a problem because:
- The software that underlies them is a "trade secret" which cannot be inspected for flaws in an open fashion (for instance by academic computer scientists).
- There are flaws in the software (for instance, in Florida the machines counted votes to 32,000 and then started counting backwards on a few ballot initiatives).
- There are flaws in the engineering of the machines that make them susceptible to hacking (in particular they run an insecure setup with Microsoft Access that has been demonstrated as hackable and alterable to hide modifications).
- Inaccurate vote totals lead to suspicion (on a number of occasions the vote totals have exceeded the total number of registered voters in an area, while this may be a glitch with voter logs or the computer assigning voters to the wrong county, it does lead to suspicion).
The appearance of impropriety among the companies that manufacture the voting machines undermines confidence in the results. Here is a short list:
- Senator Chuck Hagel won a landslide victory in Nebraska. His campaign treasurer had been president of ES&S, the voting equipment manufacturer for Nebraska, and Hagel had an investment of $1-$5 million in his company, which owned 25% of ES&S.
- Diebold's CEO said that he was "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the President".
- Leaked Diebold memos exposed flaws in the software and bad engineering (see exerts here)
- Diebold claimed that it cannot manufacture voting machine that produced a paper receipt because of the danger of paper jams causing problems (Diebold manufactures most ATM machine in the USA). California is suing Diebold for false claims about its machines.
None of these points are evidence of anything. But they definitely don't inspire confidence that the results will be accurate, which is probably the most important factor in a democracy.
Here is the reasonable response from David Dill, a professor of computer science at Stanford:
Computerized voting equipment is inherently subject to programming error, equipment malfunction, and malicious tampering. It is therefore crucial that voting equipment provide a voter-verifiable audit trail, by which we mean a permanent record of each vote that can be checked for accuracy by the voter before the vote is submitted, and is difficult or impossible to alter after it has been checked. Many of the electronic voting machines being purchased do not satisfy this requirement. Voting machines should not be purchased or used unless they provide a voter-verifiable audit trail; when such machines are already in use, they should be replaced or modified to provide a voter-verifiable audit trail. Providing a voter-verifiable audit trail should be one of the essential requirements for certification of new voting systems.
There would be not conspiracy theories if we simply provided every voter with a paper receipt which they would verify and drop into a voting box, and which could be recounted in case of a dispute.
November 9, 2004
Seriously?
Wow! A Left wing guy like Thom Hartmann said the election was hacked!?! I know he has nothing against, W., I mean he's only being doing liberal radio for 35 years. Come on the guy met the Dalai Lama! That right there has got to put him at least left of Green Peace.
Also, I highly doubt a publication (the blue lemur) which is supported by therawstory would in anyway try to be unbiased. They're a liberal answer to the Druge Report. Check it out. By the way, my dad is 17 years older than the combined age of the guys who run the site.
I typed Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked into Google and all I saw was blogs and left wing websites. None of the big boys have said a thing and the election was a week ago. (Yeah ok, I'm setting myself up).
But still.....you know this is just fodder for consipracy theorists.......
Also, I highly doubt a publication (the blue lemur) which is supported by therawstory would in anyway try to be unbiased. They're a liberal answer to the Druge Report. Check it out. By the way, my dad is 17 years older than the combined age of the guys who run the site.
I typed Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked into Google and all I saw was blogs and left wing websites. None of the big boys have said a thing and the election was a week ago. (Yeah ok, I'm setting myself up).
But still.....you know this is just fodder for consipracy theorists.......
Friends and Family in Tin Foil Hats
November 8, 2004
Small Towns for Kerry?
If there is one thing I am certain of as far as voting patterns go, it's that people in the big cities vote Donkey and those in small towns vote for the other guys. So, now I see in a couple of places that Bush lost ground in rural areas and small towns while gaining support overall:
Finally, his support was up by 10 points in urban areas and down by 2 points in rural communities, including a surprising 9 point decrease from residents of small towns. This goes against a whole bunch of conventional wisdom (including mine) about the growing urban/rural divide in America. If anything, it seems to have narrowed in this election.
...
Gallup's post-election poll seems to do some major damage to the rapidly emerging conventional wisdom about the 2004 election. According to Gallup, George W. Bush improved his share among suburban voters (51 percent in 2000, 54 percent in 2004) and among urban voters (35 percent in 2000, 44 percent in 2004) while doing worse among rural voters (60 percent in 2000, down to 54 percent in 2004).
Why did this happen? Did Kerry killing that goose swing some small town folks? Any theories? I know for a fact that I have many readers in small town America. What do you think?
Finally, his support was up by 10 points in urban areas and down by 2 points in rural communities, including a surprising 9 point decrease from residents of small towns. This goes against a whole bunch of conventional wisdom (including mine) about the growing urban/rural divide in America. If anything, it seems to have narrowed in this election.
...
Gallup's post-election poll seems to do some major damage to the rapidly emerging conventional wisdom about the 2004 election. According to Gallup, George W. Bush improved his share among suburban voters (51 percent in 2000, 54 percent in 2004) and among urban voters (35 percent in 2000, 44 percent in 2004) while doing worse among rural voters (60 percent in 2000, down to 54 percent in 2004).
Why did this happen? Did Kerry killing that goose swing some small town folks? Any theories? I know for a fact that I have many readers in small town America. What do you think?
November 7, 2004
Consequences
Alright, unless Chris can pull a Bob Woodward and actually come up with hard evidence about the massive electronic voting conspiracy, we are stuck with Bush for the next four years. What to expect? No more wars. What we have is bad enough. Bush simply does not have the troops to do anything else. The election had put a lid on news from Iraq, but with a major assault due to hit any day and elections due in January; Iraq is the issue the Bushies need to deal with. No security in Iraq means no free and fair elections. Every month we stay brings more dead US soldiers. But if we pull out the Allawi government falls in a week. If we don't form a democratic government, then not one stated goal of the invasion of Iraq will be met. The real worry is that, with the entire US military tied down, what happens when the next crisis with either with Iran, North Korea or some country we haven't heard of yet. At that point my mother can resume worrying about the draft.
Domestically, stuff to worry about includes the Supreme Court and the budget. The real worry is not over replacing Rehnquist, who has thyroid cancer. Bush replaces a conservative with a conservative; there will be a fight but not train wreck as the court stays 5-4. If O’Connor or one of the liberals needs to be replaced and Bush puts up a conservative, watch out. That puts Roe and a bunch of other stuff in real jeopardy so we are talking Armageddon in the Senate.
Finally, I see little being done about the massive budget deficit. Cutting taxes is often cited as one of Bush's big domestic achievements, but getting Congress to cut taxes is as easy as giving away shots of Higuera at midnight. What is hard is to switch from a budget that looks more and more like Argentina. Republicans are supposed to be grumpy old men who pinch pennies. Bush sure isn’t.
Domestically, stuff to worry about includes the Supreme Court and the budget. The real worry is not over replacing Rehnquist, who has thyroid cancer. Bush replaces a conservative with a conservative; there will be a fight but not train wreck as the court stays 5-4. If O’Connor or one of the liberals needs to be replaced and Bush puts up a conservative, watch out. That puts Roe and a bunch of other stuff in real jeopardy so we are talking Armageddon in the Senate.
Finally, I see little being done about the massive budget deficit. Cutting taxes is often cited as one of Bush's big domestic achievements, but getting Congress to cut taxes is as easy as giving away shots of Higuera at midnight. What is hard is to switch from a budget that looks more and more like Argentina. Republicans are supposed to be grumpy old men who pinch pennies. Bush sure isn’t.
November 6, 2004
November 5, 2004
Was the election stolen?
The exit polls are suspicious in that they are accurate in paper ballot areas, but inaccurately skewed away from the eventual Bush result in electronic polling areas.
The British Reaction
Bonus link: Readers of the British newspapers The Guardian tried to persuade to Ohio voters, who were none to happy to hear from them.
Flee the country?
Now, before you seriously consider leaving for Canada consider this modest proposal: most of us could leave without moving ...
November 4, 2004
Trying to Find the Bright Side
1. Voter Turnout was way up, the highest since 1968.
2. Barack Obama.
3. Ken Salazar.
4. Democrats won control of the Oregon Senate, the Washington Senate, the Vermont House, the Colorado Senate, and the North Carolina House.
5. Invading France will go better than Iraq.
6. 51-48 is no mandate.
7. This keeps the Daily Show and Michael Moore in business.
8. Bush owns Iraq and will be President when it fall apart.
9. The second term is when the scandals hit.
10. More anti-Bush rants from Craigorian Chant.
2. Barack Obama.
3. Ken Salazar.
4. Democrats won control of the Oregon Senate, the Washington Senate, the Vermont House, the Colorado Senate, and the North Carolina House.
5. Invading France will go better than Iraq.
6. 51-48 is no mandate.
7. This keeps the Daily Show and Michael Moore in business.
8. Bush owns Iraq and will be President when it fall apart.
9. The second term is when the scandals hit.
10. More anti-Bush rants from Craigorian Chant.
November 3, 2004
So What Happened?
Been looking at the numbers and it looks like just a lot more conservatives showed up to vote. According to TNR:
Not only did Kerry win by an 86-13 margin among self-described liberals, he also won by a 55-45 margin among self-described moderates. So how'd Bush pull it off? He won 84-15 among self-described conservatives, and, more importantly, he made sure conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate than they did in 2000. (Conservatives comprised about 34 percent of the electorate yesterday, versus 29 percent in 2000--a huge shift, raw numbers-wise.)
Kerry did just fine amoung everybody he should have to win, but I think the Karl Rove stratigery of getting conservatives fired up really did work. It fired up liberals too, it just fired up conservatives more. Turnout overall went up 20% across the board from 2000. Remember we are only talking about a few % points here. No need to move to Canada, even if the idea is tempting. I think that if Bush tries to push hard to the right (and I think he will) he is going to hit a wall.
Other notes - Man were the exit polls ever wronge. The going theory is that pissed off Democrates voted early and messed up the numbers.
Not only did Kerry win by an 86-13 margin among self-described liberals, he also won by a 55-45 margin among self-described moderates. So how'd Bush pull it off? He won 84-15 among self-described conservatives, and, more importantly, he made sure conservatives comprised a much bigger chunk of the electorate than they did in 2000. (Conservatives comprised about 34 percent of the electorate yesterday, versus 29 percent in 2000--a huge shift, raw numbers-wise.)
Kerry did just fine amoung everybody he should have to win, but I think the Karl Rove stratigery of getting conservatives fired up really did work. It fired up liberals too, it just fired up conservatives more. Turnout overall went up 20% across the board from 2000. Remember we are only talking about a few % points here. No need to move to Canada, even if the idea is tempting. I think that if Bush tries to push hard to the right (and I think he will) he is going to hit a wall.
Other notes - Man were the exit polls ever wronge. The going theory is that pissed off Democrates voted early and messed up the numbers.
Kerry Concedes
Everyone remember where you are and how you feel. Now think about how you would have felt had it gone the other way. Remember this feeling for next time. There will be a next time. The country has not gotten behind Bush. The fifty-fifty nation broke 51-49 yesterday, but the next flip of the coin could be different. Stay involved, keep reading the Chant and remember how you felt this day.
Some Observations............
Ten of my fellow classmates and I gathered at one of our apartments last night for an election party and boy were they all pissed around mid-night! We settled on Pete to bring home the results to us, but mainly because the TV we were watching from only had 5 channels and that one came in the best. I thought he did a good job though.
Well I must say I was surprised with the outcome of the Presidential race. Perhaps I shouldn't have relied so much on this, but I figured Bush's number was up anyway. Then I log onto CNN and see this. What!?! Kerry's conceeding? I thought Edwards was going to fly out to Ohio with 40 lawyers and make sure all the provisional votes were counted, thus dragging this thing out for another month. I guees he thought it would be best for the country to not do that. And may I say, good move.
The one thing that surprised me was how quickly Florida went to Bush. When I saw that I thought....oooo, looks like Bush could pull it out. Then the Ohio votes started comming with 91% of precincts reporting....95, 98 showing Bush's lead over Kerry by at least 127,00. Late last night with about 99% of Ohio precincts reporting, CNN had Bush ahead by more than 147,000 votes. Then when JE went on stage in Boston for that 45 second speech, I said yep its over. They essentially conceeded Ohio (Even though CNN and ABC just wouldn't give it to Bush, there were being so carefull, but can you blame them?).
According to the polls going into the last week, it appeared Kerry had made his case (although some think he did not). From what I read it was clear that Kerry won at least two out of the three debates (if not all three) with Bush. I did see their second one, and in my opinion, Kerry bettered W. in that one. I figured that America had seen that W. made some pretty bad mistakes in Iraq, had come up short in the debates, and had mis-manage the entire country as a whole. With all of this Kerry should have won by at least 50 electoral votes.
However, one of the Ohio newspapers that endorsed W. made a good point: Bush and Kerry are not the best choices for President, but let Bush finish the job he started. I guess America didn't want a transition in the middle of the war on terroism. It could have sent a bad message to certain countries that we couldn't finish the job and we did not think the eleminating these guys was important. Thats the primary reason I think Bush is still President. Look at how many mistakes he has made, how many dumb things he has said and how many people hate him (I don't need a link for that one....you all know). Yet he still wins? Hmmmmm.
It is very surprising Kerry could not convince the country to elect him especially considering the above. Man, not only did he not win the electoral vote, but Bush won a majority this time!
Well like him or not Bush is our guy for the next four years.
Mmmmmmm tax cuts......
PS
In a completely unrelated topic, if you want to know some things about transportation data, click here. I got a B+ on it.
Well I must say I was surprised with the outcome of the Presidential race. Perhaps I shouldn't have relied so much on this, but I figured Bush's number was up anyway. Then I log onto CNN and see this. What!?! Kerry's conceeding? I thought Edwards was going to fly out to Ohio with 40 lawyers and make sure all the provisional votes were counted, thus dragging this thing out for another month. I guees he thought it would be best for the country to not do that. And may I say, good move.
The one thing that surprised me was how quickly Florida went to Bush. When I saw that I thought....oooo, looks like Bush could pull it out. Then the Ohio votes started comming with 91% of precincts reporting....95, 98 showing Bush's lead over Kerry by at least 127,00. Late last night with about 99% of Ohio precincts reporting, CNN had Bush ahead by more than 147,000 votes. Then when JE went on stage in Boston for that 45 second speech, I said yep its over. They essentially conceeded Ohio (Even though CNN and ABC just wouldn't give it to Bush, there were being so carefull, but can you blame them?).
According to the polls going into the last week, it appeared Kerry had made his case (although some think he did not). From what I read it was clear that Kerry won at least two out of the three debates (if not all three) with Bush. I did see their second one, and in my opinion, Kerry bettered W. in that one. I figured that America had seen that W. made some pretty bad mistakes in Iraq, had come up short in the debates, and had mis-manage the entire country as a whole. With all of this Kerry should have won by at least 50 electoral votes.
However, one of the Ohio newspapers that endorsed W. made a good point: Bush and Kerry are not the best choices for President, but let Bush finish the job he started. I guess America didn't want a transition in the middle of the war on terroism. It could have sent a bad message to certain countries that we couldn't finish the job and we did not think the eleminating these guys was important. Thats the primary reason I think Bush is still President. Look at how many mistakes he has made, how many dumb things he has said and how many people hate him (I don't need a link for that one....you all know). Yet he still wins? Hmmmmm.
It is very surprising Kerry could not convince the country to elect him especially considering the above. Man, not only did he not win the electoral vote, but Bush won a majority this time!
Well like him or not Bush is our guy for the next four years.
Mmmmmmm tax cuts......
PS
In a completely unrelated topic, if you want to know some things about transportation data, click here. I got a B+ on it.
November 2, 2004
Well Crap
Things are not looking good. Bush is up by 3 million popular votes nationwide. I think that Kerry will come up as more California votes come in. The EC does not look good. Fox and NBC have called Ohio for Bush which puts him at 269; one short of victory. CNN and the AP have not called Ohio. I think only Ohio can save Kerry at this point and I don't think Kerry can win Ohio tonight. We could be in recount land here. As final note, I really think that Wolf Blizer is a funny name for a grown man.
Craig's Voting Story
I braved long lines, GOP poll watchers, and a horde of lawyers to vote this morning. I bravely sorted through no less than 20 Statewide and local propositions. I am very worried I picked the wrong guy for Harbor Commissioner. I am worried that I don't know what the Harbor Commission does. I was lucky to have escaped with my life much less have voted at all. Actually in sleepy California the polling place was not crowded and there wasn't a lawyer to be seen. They had to check three different lists to find me but I got to vote just fine. I am totally serious about the massive number of ballot measures and the Harbor Commission.
The first votes are on the AP now. It's just Indiana and Kentucky so I would not worry.
Tiiiiime is on my side yes it is...Tiiiiime is on my side. The early exits have filled me with false hope.
I must now be very clear:
Get your ass to polls! Right Now! Move! If you live in Kentucky or Indiana it's already too late! Less than five hours left in California! Move!
By the way, if you haven't mailed your absentee ballot in you can still turn it in directly to your polling place. If you are out of town and didn't mail in your absentee ballot then good job, idiot! You may have just cost us the election.
The first votes are on the AP now. It's just Indiana and Kentucky so I would not worry.
Tiiiiime is on my side yes it is...Tiiiiime is on my side. The early exits have filled me with false hope.
I must now be very clear:
Get your ass to polls! Right Now! Move! If you live in Kentucky or Indiana it's already too late! Less than five hours left in California! Move!
By the way, if you haven't mailed your absentee ballot in you can still turn it in directly to your polling place. If you are out of town and didn't mail in your absentee ballot then good job, idiot! You may have just cost us the election.
Too excited to Sleep Edition
What a fun time to be alive. The direction of the country, the fate of the world, everything is at stake; and no one, and I mean no one, knows what's going to happen. I have a ton of work to do and nothing is getting done. I'm either going to be voting, getting others to to go vote, or just worrying about the race. I did link to some stuff to offer prospective but none of it took. I'm like a kid before x-mas with the added buzz of not knowing if I'm getting the red rider BB gun or the biggest lump of coal in the history of the Republic. The direction of the country is in the balance. Somebody out there is the little nudge that will change everything. Is it you?
I have now ranted enough to sleep.
I have now ranted enough to sleep.
November 1, 2004
Out of Time
Well it's the last day. These are desperate times. Things are getting nasty in Ohio. Are things getting weird where you are? Send in your stories. Personally, I don't think this election will be the razor sharp finish everyone seems to be expecting. This sucker is going to break for one guy or the other, and if it was going to break for Bush it would have happened by now. Forget CSI, Tuesday night will have the best TV drama of the year. My advice is to look at what States get quick calls after the polls close on the East Cost. If New Hampshire goes fast for Kerry, feel good, if it goes fast for Bush, feel bad. Also watch Pennsylvania and then Iowa and Wisconsin when polls close in central time. My guest is no network is going to call either Florida or Ohio till all the polls close in the lower 48. But if those states get called early somebody is winning big or some network is going to wear an egg or two. Slate and others will break the embargo on early exit polls so we could get some results much earlier in the day. Stay tuned sports fans.
Time is up and there is nowhere I would not link in order to encourage you to vote.
This is the time to stand up and be counted. From the beginning of time old men have started wars and young men have finished them. But here, in this time and this place we get to pick the old men. We can change the direction of the county. It will not be done with marches, with bombs or street theater. Go vote, go help and count on everyone else to do the same. Trust that I will do my part and I will trust you to do yours.
Hope, not fear.
Time is up and there is nowhere I would not link in order to encourage you to vote.
This is the time to stand up and be counted. From the beginning of time old men have started wars and young men have finished them. But here, in this time and this place we get to pick the old men. We can change the direction of the county. It will not be done with marches, with bombs or street theater. Go vote, go help and count on everyone else to do the same. Trust that I will do my part and I will trust you to do yours.
Hope, not fear.
October 31, 2004
Let America Be America Again
By Langston Hughes
Let America be America again.
Let it be the dream it used to be.
Let it be the pioneer on the plain
Seeking a home where he himself is free.
(America never was America to me.)
Let America be the dream the dreamers dreamed--
Let it be that great strong land of love
Where never kings connive nor tyrants scheme
That any man be crushed by one above.
(It never was America to me.)
O, let my land be a land where Liberty
Is crowned with no false patriotic wreath,
But opportunity is real, and life is free,
Equality is in the air we breathe.
(There's never been equality for me,
Nor freedom in this "homeland of the free.")
Say, who are you that mumbles in the dark?
And who are you that draws your veil across the stars?
I am the poor white, fooled and pushed apart,
I am the Negro bearing slavery's scars.
I am the red man driven from the land,
I am the immigrant clutching the hope I seek--
And finding only the same old stupid plan
Of dog eat dog, of mighty crush the weak.
I am the young man, full of strength and hope,
Tangled in that ancient endless chain
Of profit, power, gain, of grab the land!
Of grab the gold! Of grab the ways of satisfying need!
Of work the men! Of take the pay!
Of owning everything for one's own greed!
I am the farmer, bondsman to the soil.
I am the worker sold to the machine.
I am the Negro, servant to you all.
I am the people, humble, hungry, mean--
Hungry yet today despite the dream.
Beaten yet today--O, Pioneers!
I am the man who never got ahead,
The poorest worker bartered through the years.
Yet I'm the one who dreamt our basic dream
In the Old World while still a serf of kings,
Who dreamt a dream so strong, so brave, so true,
That even yet its mighty daring sings
In every brick and stone, in every furrow turned
That's made America the land it has become.
O, I'm the man who sailed those early seas
In search of what I meant to be my home--
For I'm the one who left dark Ireland's shore,
And Poland's plain, and England's grassy lea,
And torn from Black Africa's strand I came
To build a "homeland of the free."
The free?
Who said the free? Not me?
Surely not me? The millions on relief today?
The millions shot down when we strike?
The millions who have nothing for our pay?
For all the dreams we've dreamed
And all the songs we've sung
And all the hopes we've held
And all the flags we've hung,
The millions who have nothing for our pay--
Except the dream that's almost dead today.
O, let America be America again--
The land that never has been yet--
And yet must be--the land where every man is free.
The land that's mine--the poor man's, Indian's, Negro's, ME--
Who made America,
Whose sweat and blood, whose faith and pain,
Whose hand at the foundry, whose plow in the rain,
Must bring back our mighty dream again.
Sure, call me any ugly name you choose--
The steel of freedom does not stain.
From those who live like leeches on the people's lives,
We must take back our land again,
America!
O, yes,
I say it plain,
America never was America to me,
And yet I swear this oath--
America will be!
Out of the rack and ruin of our gangster death,
The rape and rot of graft, and stealth, and lies,
We, the people, must redeem
The land, the mines, the plants, the rivers.
The mountains and the endless plain--
All, all the stretch of these great green states--
And make America again!
From The Collected Poems of Langston Hughes, published by Alfred A. Knopf, Inc. Copyright © 1994 the Estate of Langston Hughes.
Let America be America again.
Let it be the dream it used to be.
Let it be the pioneer on the plain
Seeking a home where he himself is free.
(America never was America to me.)
Let America be the dream the dreamers dreamed--
Let it be that great strong land of love
Where never kings connive nor tyrants scheme
That any man be crushed by one above.
(It never was America to me.)
O, let my land be a land where Liberty
Is crowned with no false patriotic wreath,
But opportunity is real, and life is free,
Equality is in the air we breathe.
(There's never been equality for me,
Nor freedom in this "homeland of the free.")
Say, who are you that mumbles in the dark?
And who are you that draws your veil across the stars?
I am the poor white, fooled and pushed apart,
I am the Negro bearing slavery's scars.
I am the red man driven from the land,
I am the immigrant clutching the hope I seek--
And finding only the same old stupid plan
Of dog eat dog, of mighty crush the weak.
I am the young man, full of strength and hope,
Tangled in that ancient endless chain
Of profit, power, gain, of grab the land!
Of grab the gold! Of grab the ways of satisfying need!
Of work the men! Of take the pay!
Of owning everything for one's own greed!
I am the farmer, bondsman to the soil.
I am the worker sold to the machine.
I am the Negro, servant to you all.
I am the people, humble, hungry, mean--
Hungry yet today despite the dream.
Beaten yet today--O, Pioneers!
I am the man who never got ahead,
The poorest worker bartered through the years.
Yet I'm the one who dreamt our basic dream
In the Old World while still a serf of kings,
Who dreamt a dream so strong, so brave, so true,
That even yet its mighty daring sings
In every brick and stone, in every furrow turned
That's made America the land it has become.
O, I'm the man who sailed those early seas
In search of what I meant to be my home--
For I'm the one who left dark Ireland's shore,
And Poland's plain, and England's grassy lea,
And torn from Black Africa's strand I came
To build a "homeland of the free."
The free?
Who said the free? Not me?
Surely not me? The millions on relief today?
The millions shot down when we strike?
The millions who have nothing for our pay?
For all the dreams we've dreamed
And all the songs we've sung
And all the hopes we've held
And all the flags we've hung,
The millions who have nothing for our pay--
Except the dream that's almost dead today.
O, let America be America again--
The land that never has been yet--
And yet must be--the land where every man is free.
The land that's mine--the poor man's, Indian's, Negro's, ME--
Who made America,
Whose sweat and blood, whose faith and pain,
Whose hand at the foundry, whose plow in the rain,
Must bring back our mighty dream again.
Sure, call me any ugly name you choose--
The steel of freedom does not stain.
From those who live like leeches on the people's lives,
We must take back our land again,
America!
O, yes,
I say it plain,
America never was America to me,
And yet I swear this oath--
America will be!
Out of the rack and ruin of our gangster death,
The rape and rot of graft, and stealth, and lies,
We, the people, must redeem
The land, the mines, the plants, the rivers.
The mountains and the endless plain--
All, all the stretch of these great green states--
And make America again!
From The Collected Poems of Langston Hughes, published by Alfred A. Knopf, Inc. Copyright © 1994 the Estate of Langston Hughes.
Prespective
Deep Breath Time. We do not want to end up like this guy:
"I'm definitely gonna vote for him," Karnes said of Bush. "Because he's been the president for four years and nothing bad has happened since Sept. 11. He's kept me alive for four years." If Kerry becomes president, he said, "We'll be dead within a year."
Go read Garrison Keillor in Time and Rachael Larimore in Slate to ease up just a little. Not too much. You still got to vote and go make your calls and knock on your doors like the world will end if our guy goes down, but do keep in mind that the world will not end if our guy goes down.
"I'm definitely gonna vote for him," Karnes said of Bush. "Because he's been the president for four years and nothing bad has happened since Sept. 11. He's kept me alive for four years." If Kerry becomes president, he said, "We'll be dead within a year."
Go read Garrison Keillor in Time and Rachael Larimore in Slate to ease up just a little. Not too much. You still got to vote and go make your calls and knock on your doors like the world will end if our guy goes down, but do keep in mind that the world will not end if our guy goes down.
October 30, 2004
Breaking News
The future of the country is set. The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll has Bush up by seven points. Why, there is now way that Kerry could win the popular vote now...
Oh wait, that's right, this is a poll from 2000. These guys had Gore down by 7 at this exact moment in the race and Gore actually won the popular vote. I due hereby declare a Craigorian Chant ban on national polls. Just go vote.
I really can't decide on a costume for Halloween. What do you guys think?
Also, if you are in a position to actually see me in the real world you can still post a wager in the swing State pool. One dollar to buy in and you pick 10 swing States Bush/Kerry. Most correct picks wins the pool. Must buy in before the polls open on the East Coast, that's 5:00 a.m. Tuesday morning.
Keep Hope Alive!
Happy Holloween
Oh wait, that's right, this is a poll from 2000. These guys had Gore down by 7 at this exact moment in the race and Gore actually won the popular vote. I due hereby declare a Craigorian Chant ban on national polls. Just go vote.
I really can't decide on a costume for Halloween. What do you guys think?
Also, if you are in a position to actually see me in the real world you can still post a wager in the swing State pool. One dollar to buy in and you pick 10 swing States Bush/Kerry. Most correct picks wins the pool. Must buy in before the polls open on the East Coast, that's 5:00 a.m. Tuesday morning.
Keep Hope Alive!
Happy Holloween
October 29, 2004
4 More Days! 4 More Days!
New Osama Tape is out. Impact uncertain. Keep it mind it was Bush that missed the chance to get the guy.
I would just like to go on the record as saying that I have been a very vocal supporter of John Kerry on this web site and that I would make an excellent campaign representitive. Please send me to Hawaii! I could convince 4, maybe 5, people with my killer pro-Kerry speech. Plus, it would give me the 12 hour plane flight to try and win over Alexandra Kerry with my wit and charm. I can see it now. Having delivered our speeches to great acclaim at the local High School, Alexandra and lie out on a white sandy beach, drinks with little umbrellas in our hands...
Instead, I must do what I can where I can. So I must brave the cold of a San Luis Obispo night to get door hangers ready for election day, not a single bikini-clad future first daughter in sight. Sigh.
By the way if you want to help, but don't want to brave the cold night air give VoterCall a try. You can call voters from the comfort of your nice, warm home. Use those spare cell phones minutes to help America.
I would just like to go on the record as saying that I have been a very vocal supporter of John Kerry on this web site and that I would make an excellent campaign representitive. Please send me to Hawaii! I could convince 4, maybe 5, people with my killer pro-Kerry speech. Plus, it would give me the 12 hour plane flight to try and win over Alexandra Kerry with my wit and charm. I can see it now. Having delivered our speeches to great acclaim at the local High School, Alexandra and lie out on a white sandy beach, drinks with little umbrellas in our hands...
Instead, I must do what I can where I can. So I must brave the cold of a San Luis Obispo night to get door hangers ready for election day, not a single bikini-clad future first daughter in sight. Sigh.
By the way if you want to help, but don't want to brave the cold night air give VoterCall a try. You can call voters from the comfort of your nice, warm home. Use those spare cell phones minutes to help America.
October 28, 2004
5 Days to Go
Five days to go and we need to rewire Bush.
Do what you can. Salon has a roundup of places you can go to help.
Do your thing.
Do what you can. Salon has a roundup of places you can go to help.
Do your thing.
October 27, 2004
Talk Like an Insider
The 527s dropped over a 1,000 points on this race, but the D-Trip still show the race within the MoE. POTUS hit the State and showed some good message discipline, but the early exits make me nervious. Nothing is certain till the Decision Desk weights in.
Find out what it all means here.
Find out what it all means here.
Quote of the Day
A political candidate who jumps to conclusions without knowing the facts is not a person you want as commander in chief.
George W Bush.
Via Political Animal
George W Bush.
Via Political Animal
Electoral Vote Predictor
October 26, 2004
Simple Election Predictor
Well everybody is asking me for predictions like I know something about politics or something.
I calculate that the following factors will all be key in determining the outcome of the election:
The Boss does his thing.
Ralph Nader does his thing.
Eminem does his thing.
Republicans will be jerks.
Iraqi War Dead.
The American People's growing love of Kerry.
The outcome of the Scott Peterson Case.
Game Theory.
I will place all of these factors into a grand equation that will then automatically determine the outcome of the election. I should have all the math worked out by mid-December right before the final recount.
I calculate that the following factors will all be key in determining the outcome of the election:
The Boss does his thing.
Ralph Nader does his thing.
Eminem does his thing.
Republicans will be jerks.
Iraqi War Dead.
The American People's growing love of Kerry.
The outcome of the Scott Peterson Case.
Game Theory.
I will place all of these factors into a grand equation that will then automatically determine the outcome of the election. I should have all the math worked out by mid-December right before the final recount.
The Future.........if Bush wins
With so many people out for Bush's head (especially Dems), I predict that if W. does win many of these same people will organize lynch mobs and go a huntin' for anyone who disagrees with them or disagreed with them in the past. They're not passionate about Kerry, they just hate Bush so damn much. This is not news by the way.
Well, here's a look at what could happen with 4 more years of Bush. Its not all good for W., but I didn't see anything on Dem's going lynching or rioting or anything like that.
ONE MORE......
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry for putting 2 posts in one, by I'm lazy:
Anyhow, just wanted to give 2 big thumbs up to Team America. Funniest damn movie I've seen in years. A real good commentary on whats going on in the world, and may I say the film doesn't necessarily paint America in the best light, though it does bash on everyone and thing against it!
PS
Kudos to Trey Parker and Matt Stone for blowing up Michael Moore. I guess they got back at him for that Bowling for Columbine thing.
PPS
I had no idea Matt Damon and Ethan Hawke were F.A.G.'s
Well, here's a look at what could happen with 4 more years of Bush. Its not all good for W., but I didn't see anything on Dem's going lynching or rioting or anything like that.
ONE MORE......
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sorry for putting 2 posts in one, by I'm lazy:
Anyhow, just wanted to give 2 big thumbs up to Team America. Funniest damn movie I've seen in years. A real good commentary on whats going on in the world, and may I say the film doesn't necessarily paint America in the best light, though it does bash on everyone and thing against it!
PS
Kudos to Trey Parker and Matt Stone for blowing up Michael Moore. I guess they got back at him for that Bowling for Columbine thing.
PPS
I had no idea Matt Damon and Ethan Hawke were F.A.G.'s
October 25, 2004
Just Do One Thing
Could the Bush administration do just one thing right?
Just one thing?
Huge Cache of Explosives Vanished From Site in Iraq
380 tons of the best high explosives in the world are just laying around unguarded in the middle of the most dangerous country in the world. One pound of this stuff can bring down an airliner. And now they are gone. According to Josh's sources these are the explosives that go into improvised explosive devises(IED). Look here. See how many soldiers die due to IEDs. 20% of soldiers killed this month were killed by IEDs. Show me just one thing that has gone right in Iraq. Just one thing.
Just one thing?
Huge Cache of Explosives Vanished From Site in Iraq
380 tons of the best high explosives in the world are just laying around unguarded in the middle of the most dangerous country in the world. One pound of this stuff can bring down an airliner. And now they are gone. According to Josh's sources these are the explosives that go into improvised explosive devises(IED). Look here. See how many soldiers die due to IEDs. 20% of soldiers killed this month were killed by IEDs. Show me just one thing that has gone right in Iraq. Just one thing.
October 24, 2004
Craigorian Chant Voter Guide
The lucky voters of California get to vote on no less than 18 ballot measures. To help the good voter of California I will present my view of how you should vote.
Prop 1a - This Prop ensures that the State can't take money from local Government in the event of a budget crisis. As I plan to be working for a local government as a planner for the next few years, this measure should help keep me from being laid off due to lack of funds. The Chant recommends Yes.
Prop 60 - Minor Ballot tinkering. The Chant does not Care.
Prop 61 - Creates weird "Jungle" Primary with everybody on one ballot and no party registration to vote for people. Stupid. Makes primary kind of like general. Confusing. Makes a mess. The Chant recommends No
Prop 66 - Amends "3 Strikes" law. Violent felons only. No more 25 to life for stealing a bike. The Chant recommends Yes.
Prop 67 - Increase telephone fees to pay for more ER's. Not that I have anything against ER's I love George Clooney, but this is a really stupid way to pay for them. Telephone fees? You can't just tax [random activity] to pay for [random good thing] These things have to make sense. The Chant recommends No
Prop 68 and 70 - Indian Gaming. Got the feeling with both of these that someone is trying pull a fast one. This kind of thing should go to through the Governor and the State Legislators . If they screw it up we can just recall them. The Chant recommends No on both.
Prop 71 - Stem Cell Research. Could cure diseases. Stick it to Bush. Well worth spending your money on. Plus, California owns anything that gets discovered so if these stem cells cure cancer we can pay for more planners. The Chant recommends Yes
Prop 1a - This Prop ensures that the State can't take money from local Government in the event of a budget crisis. As I plan to be working for a local government as a planner for the next few years, this measure should help keep me from being laid off due to lack of funds. The Chant recommends Yes.
Prop 60 - Minor Ballot tinkering. The Chant does not Care.
Prop 61 - Creates weird "Jungle" Primary with everybody on one ballot and no party registration to vote for people. Stupid. Makes primary kind of like general. Confusing. Makes a mess. The Chant recommends No
Prop 66 - Amends "3 Strikes" law. Violent felons only. No more 25 to life for stealing a bike. The Chant recommends Yes.
Prop 67 - Increase telephone fees to pay for more ER's. Not that I have anything against ER's I love George Clooney, but this is a really stupid way to pay for them. Telephone fees? You can't just tax [random activity] to pay for [random good thing] These things have to make sense. The Chant recommends No
Prop 68 and 70 - Indian Gaming. Got the feeling with both of these that someone is trying pull a fast one. This kind of thing should go to through the Governor and the State Legislators . If they screw it up we can just recall them. The Chant recommends No on both.
Prop 71 - Stem Cell Research. Could cure diseases. Stick it to Bush. Well worth spending your money on. Plus, California owns anything that gets discovered so if these stem cells cure cancer we can pay for more planners. The Chant recommends Yes
October 23, 2004
Now the Animals Get Involved
The talk of the web is a new Bush ad that features wolves as metaphor for the terrorists that will eat us all if John Kerry is elected President. There are a boatload of problems with this ad. The factual side I'll leave to Fred Kaplan. Let's just say the ad is a massive distortion of the facts.
But there is another problem with the ad. The wolves are not very scary. Paul Begala called them "puppies" The first part of the ad, which just shows the spooky wood is fairly ominous, but when the terrorist wolves are revealed it's that footage you see on Wild American of a wolfpack at play. Not scary at all. These wolves are the worst metaphors ever. The DNC has struck back with a bird ad, comparing a soaring eagle with a clear vision and the ability to change course, with an ostrich with it head buried in the sand. You can guess the metaphor yourself.
Most importantly the wolves themselves have formed Wolfpacks for Truth to counter the ad:
They told us we were shooting a Greenpeace commercial!
We are not Terrorists!
We are a peaceful pack of wolves.
To complete today's animals and politics theme I give you A Bear Votes. Cute.
It's 10 days before the election and if anybody tells you they know what is going to happen, they are trying to sell something. Have you mailed your absentee ballot? Do you know where your polling place is?
But there is another problem with the ad. The wolves are not very scary. Paul Begala called them "puppies" The first part of the ad, which just shows the spooky wood is fairly ominous, but when the terrorist wolves are revealed it's that footage you see on Wild American of a wolfpack at play. Not scary at all. These wolves are the worst metaphors ever. The DNC has struck back with a bird ad, comparing a soaring eagle with a clear vision and the ability to change course, with an ostrich with it head buried in the sand. You can guess the metaphor yourself.
Most importantly the wolves themselves have formed Wolfpacks for Truth to counter the ad:
They told us we were shooting a Greenpeace commercial!
We are not Terrorists!
We are a peaceful pack of wolves.
To complete today's animals and politics theme I give you A Bear Votes. Cute.
It's 10 days before the election and if anybody tells you they know what is going to happen, they are trying to sell something. Have you mailed your absentee ballot? Do you know where your polling place is?
October 22, 2004
Friday Roundup
Stealing the best from around the web.
Jesse "The Body" Ventura endorses Kerry.
A helpful guide to O.K. and not O.K. attacks as the election closes in.
Yes Bush really did mess this thing up.
Ann Coulter hit with pie.
I find this ad strangly compelling. No more vets or senior citizens. Give me more of her.
Jesse "The Body" Ventura endorses Kerry.
A helpful guide to O.K. and not O.K. attacks as the election closes in.
Yes Bush really did mess this thing up.
Ann Coulter hit with pie.
I find this ad strangly compelling. No more vets or senior citizens. Give me more of her.
October 21, 2004
Of War and Elections
I just happen to think that David O. Russell's Three Kings is one of the best movies every made. It is with great interest that I read in Salon about a documentary follow-up that Russell made called Soldier's Pay. Love this bit:
"Soldiers Pay" briefly became the subject of news stories after Warner Bros., displaying that combination of moral courage and sound financial judgment unique to Hollywood studios, first gave Russell $200,000 to make a war documentary and then declined to distribute it.
In other news, it turns out that Bush supporters are completely wrong about the facts on Iraq. This is amazing.
Even after the final report of Charles Duelfer to Congress saying that Iraq did not have a significant WMD program, 72% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq had actual WMD (47%) or a major program for developing them (25%). Fifty-six percent assume that most experts believe Iraq had actual WMD and 57% also assume, incorrectly, that Duelfer concluded Iraq had at least a major WMD program. Kerry supporters hold opposite beliefs on all these points.
Similarly, 75% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda, and 63% believe that clear evidence of this support has been found. Sixty percent of Bush supporters assume that this is also the conclusion of most experts, and 55% assume, incorrectly, that this was the conclusion of the 9/11 Commission. Here again, large majorities of Kerry supporters have exactly opposite perceptions.
To all of you liberals out there who wonder why people still support Bush, the reason is clear: They don't know any better. Everybody find a Bush supporter this weekend, tape their eyes open, and click through the archives of Craigorian Chant. If we force a few facts into their brains, they will become Kerry people.
"Soldiers Pay" briefly became the subject of news stories after Warner Bros., displaying that combination of moral courage and sound financial judgment unique to Hollywood studios, first gave Russell $200,000 to make a war documentary and then declined to distribute it.
In other news, it turns out that Bush supporters are completely wrong about the facts on Iraq. This is amazing.
Even after the final report of Charles Duelfer to Congress saying that Iraq did not have a significant WMD program, 72% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq had actual WMD (47%) or a major program for developing them (25%). Fifty-six percent assume that most experts believe Iraq had actual WMD and 57% also assume, incorrectly, that Duelfer concluded Iraq had at least a major WMD program. Kerry supporters hold opposite beliefs on all these points.
Similarly, 75% of Bush supporters continue to believe that Iraq was providing substantial support to al Qaeda, and 63% believe that clear evidence of this support has been found. Sixty percent of Bush supporters assume that this is also the conclusion of most experts, and 55% assume, incorrectly, that this was the conclusion of the 9/11 Commission. Here again, large majorities of Kerry supporters have exactly opposite perceptions.
To all of you liberals out there who wonder why people still support Bush, the reason is clear: They don't know any better. Everybody find a Bush supporter this weekend, tape their eyes open, and click through the archives of Craigorian Chant. If we force a few facts into their brains, they will become Kerry people.
October 20, 2004
Oh, Thank God!
It turns out that John Kerry is not a heretic. A conservative Catholic lawyer tried to initiate proceedings against John Kerry to have him declared a heretic and excommunicated based on Kerry being pro-choice. This whole thing had me a little worried. After all, John Kerry is much better Catholic than I am. If he gets bounced from the embrace of Holy Mother Church, then what chance do I have? But, rest assured, the Vatican has weighed in and Kerry is in the clear.
So, if the case is clear that Kerry is not a heretic, in the interest of balance we must ask the obvious question. Is Bush a heretic? Well, I'm afraid that New Donkey has made a very good case that he is:
Although he does not appear to belong to any specific religious congregation, Mr. Bush has publicly identified himself as a "born-again Christian" of the Methodist denomination. He is thus presumptively an adherent of the Protestant Heresy, condemned most notably and definitively by the sixteenth-century Council of Trent. If so, Bush has implicitly embraced an array of subordinate heresies, including:
* Denial of the teaching authority of the Church (the basis, BTW, for questions about Mr. Kerry's views on abortion, gay marriage, and stem cell research).
* Bibliolatry (rejection of Church tradition as amplifying and interpreting scriptural authority)
* Symbolism (rejection of the Real Presence of Christ in the Eucharist)
* Sacrilege (rejection of marriage, holy orders, penance, confirmation and extreme unction as valid Sacraments of the Church)
* Dishonoring the Mother of God (rejection of the dogmas of the Immaculate Conception, Assumption and Coronation of the Blessed Virgin Mary)
* Schism (rejection of papal authority and establishment of a separate ecclesiastical structure)
I'm sorry folks but the President is going to hell. I don't think we will tell him this year. Two major shocks in one year in too much for anybody.
So, if the case is clear that Kerry is not a heretic, in the interest of balance we must ask the obvious question. Is Bush a heretic? Well, I'm afraid that New Donkey has made a very good case that he is:
Although he does not appear to belong to any specific religious congregation, Mr. Bush has publicly identified himself as a "born-again Christian" of the Methodist denomination. He is thus presumptively an adherent of the Protestant Heresy, condemned most notably and definitively by the sixteenth-century Council of Trent. If so, Bush has implicitly embraced an array of subordinate heresies, including:
* Denial of the teaching authority of the Church (the basis, BTW, for questions about Mr. Kerry's views on abortion, gay marriage, and stem cell research).
* Bibliolatry (rejection of Church tradition as amplifying and interpreting scriptural authority)
* Symbolism (rejection of the Real Presence of Christ in the Eucharist)
* Sacrilege (rejection of marriage, holy orders, penance, confirmation and extreme unction as valid Sacraments of the Church)
* Dishonoring the Mother of God (rejection of the dogmas of the Immaculate Conception, Assumption and Coronation of the Blessed Virgin Mary)
* Schism (rejection of papal authority and establishment of a separate ecclesiastical structure)
I'm sorry folks but the President is going to hell. I don't think we will tell him this year. Two major shocks in one year in too much for anybody.
Guide to Poll Watching
If you are like me and have way too much invested in watching the polls go up and down in this race, you must read Salon today.
They are the numbers flying by on the TV screen, and if you're living and dying by the presidential race, no amount of Zoloft can even out the highs and the lows they bring. George W. Bush and John Kerry are tied in the brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Kerry is up by 3 in a Democracy Corps poll released Tuesday. He is down by 5 in the Washington Post poll from Tuesday night, tied in the New York Times poll from Tuesday morning, tied in last night's Zogby tracking poll, and down by an alarming 8 in the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released over the weekend.
It goes on to say what you should look for in polls. Look at registered voters not likely voters. Look at Bush's approval numbers not the head to head match-up, and remember that the state by state results matter the most. Finally:
There are other ways to look at this thing -- futures trading, first-wife cookie contests, a geography-based test that compares the candidates' names and the names of cities and towns in America. But if you're grasping for those kinds of straws, maybe it would be better to take a break from the whole thing now. In just two weeks, Tim Russert will be on TV with his handheld white board, moving states from red to blue and back again. All will be known then. Or maybe not.
Hang in there just few more days. By mid-December this will all be over, I promise.
They are the numbers flying by on the TV screen, and if you're living and dying by the presidential race, no amount of Zoloft can even out the highs and the lows they bring. George W. Bush and John Kerry are tied in the brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Kerry is up by 3 in a Democracy Corps poll released Tuesday. He is down by 5 in the Washington Post poll from Tuesday night, tied in the New York Times poll from Tuesday morning, tied in last night's Zogby tracking poll, and down by an alarming 8 in the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll released over the weekend.
It goes on to say what you should look for in polls. Look at registered voters not likely voters. Look at Bush's approval numbers not the head to head match-up, and remember that the state by state results matter the most. Finally:
There are other ways to look at this thing -- futures trading, first-wife cookie contests, a geography-based test that compares the candidates' names and the names of cities and towns in America. But if you're grasping for those kinds of straws, maybe it would be better to take a break from the whole thing now. In just two weeks, Tim Russert will be on TV with his handheld white board, moving states from red to blue and back again. All will be known then. Or maybe not.
Hang in there just few more days. By mid-December this will all be over, I promise.
October 19, 2004
Forget the Issues, lets Hear About the Kids
Good story in the Post continues to fuel my crush on the Kerry Girls:
There are the Kerry sisters, so brainy they're intimidating, hitting college campuses, giving interviews.
Both the Bush and Kerry daughters have had their prime-time moments talking about their fathers at the conventions. Both have had their glossy rollouts in Vogue, a spread that served as a coming-out for the previously sheltered president's girls. Appearing together, the sister acts also made a pitch for voting at the Video Music Awards. The combined Kerry-Edwards crew has made hundreds of appearances and print, radio and television interviews, according to Stephen Gaskill, chief of staff for the Kerry and Edwards families.
Vanessa Kerry, 27, wearing a flirty, pop-arty top and tight jeans, is speaking to a bunch of young Democrats at the University of Pennsylvania before the first presidential debate. It's her fourth college rally of the day. A graduate of Yale, like her dad and Bush, and on leave from Harvard Medical School, she is now enrolled in a global health course at the London School of Economics, which requires her to take classes there Mondays through Wednesdays. Most weeks she jets home, flying coach on Wednesday nights to campaign until Sunday, when she flies back to England.
Unlike her father, she can pull off the don't-hate-me-because-I'm-smart routine.
Don't worry ladies, I don't find your brains intimidating.
If you want real election stuff polls are tight, race is close, every vote counts, two weeks left, blah blah blah.
The great Carlson-Stewart feud is on.
Why do dictators want Bush to win?
Only 2 weeks left. Keep the faith!
There are the Kerry sisters, so brainy they're intimidating, hitting college campuses, giving interviews.
Both the Bush and Kerry daughters have had their prime-time moments talking about their fathers at the conventions. Both have had their glossy rollouts in Vogue, a spread that served as a coming-out for the previously sheltered president's girls. Appearing together, the sister acts also made a pitch for voting at the Video Music Awards. The combined Kerry-Edwards crew has made hundreds of appearances and print, radio and television interviews, according to Stephen Gaskill, chief of staff for the Kerry and Edwards families.
Vanessa Kerry, 27, wearing a flirty, pop-arty top and tight jeans, is speaking to a bunch of young Democrats at the University of Pennsylvania before the first presidential debate. It's her fourth college rally of the day. A graduate of Yale, like her dad and Bush, and on leave from Harvard Medical School, she is now enrolled in a global health course at the London School of Economics, which requires her to take classes there Mondays through Wednesdays. Most weeks she jets home, flying coach on Wednesday nights to campaign until Sunday, when she flies back to England.
Unlike her father, she can pull off the don't-hate-me-because-I'm-smart routine.
Don't worry ladies, I don't find your brains intimidating.
If you want real election stuff polls are tight, race is close, every vote counts, two weeks left, blah blah blah.
The great Carlson-Stewart feud is on.
Why do dictators want Bush to win?
Only 2 weeks left. Keep the faith!
October 18, 2004
Story Link
Here is the Tribune Story. Dan O'Leary, the young conservative blogger in the article, put the story up on his blog. Dan is swell guy for letting me know, despite his rather obvious character flaws.
Basking in My New Found Fame Edition
Welcome, new readers, to Craigorian Chant. Just would like to lay out some basics so that you can understand where I am coming from. The is a pro-Kerry zone. I want the guy to win and I'm not shy about it. I look forward to being critical of the upcoming Kerry administration but until then the Chant is looking rather lopsided. In general, I highlight stories that cast Bush in a bad light. Such as General Reported Shortages In Iraq which seems to support Kerry when he Accuses Bush of Mismanaging Iraq War. I'm making the case for Kerry here, people. I don't mind arguments and I like it when people agree with me. That's what comments are for. Leave a comment.
This is also a pro-Angelina Jolie zone. To support the case for Angelina Jolie I will highlight stories like Jolie Named Esquire's Sexiest Woman. Frankly I expect less arguments over this subject, but you never know.
Finally Craigorian Chant is a pro-voting web page. It is the last day to register to vote in California. Get going. They are starting to vote in Florida already, but it being Florida, there are problems. If you are not registered to vote, I'm just wasting my time yacking in your ear. Go register. Make it worth my time to bug you.
This is also a pro-Angelina Jolie zone. To support the case for Angelina Jolie I will highlight stories like Jolie Named Esquire's Sexiest Woman. Frankly I expect less arguments over this subject, but you never know.
Finally Craigorian Chant is a pro-voting web page. It is the last day to register to vote in California. Get going. They are starting to vote in Florida already, but it being Florida, there are problems. If you are not registered to vote, I'm just wasting my time yacking in your ear. Go register. Make it worth my time to bug you.
October 17, 2004
Read one Thing
Forty democratic senators were gathered for a lunch in March just off the Senate floor. I was there as a guest speaker. Joe Biden was telling a story, a story about the president. ''I was in the Oval Office a few months after we swept into Baghdad,'' he began, ''and I was telling the president of my many concerns'' -- concerns about growing problems winning the peace, the explosive mix of Shiite and Sunni, the disbanding of the Iraqi Army and problems securing the oil fields. Bush, Biden recalled, just looked at him, unflappably sure that the United States was on the right course and that all was well. '''Mr. President,' I finally said, 'How can you be so sure when you know you don't know the facts?''
Biden said that Bush stood up and put his hand on the senator's shoulder. ''My instincts,'' he said. ''My instincts.''
Biden paused and shook his head, recalling it all as the room grew quiet. ''I said, 'Mr. President, your instincts aren't good enough!''
If you read just one thing today, read Ron Suskin's Without a Doubt.
It takes in all that should worry you about how the President acts. So read all about it and start to worry.
A regent I spoke to later and who asked not to be identified told me: ''I'm happy he's[Bush} certain of victory and that he's ready to burst forth into his second term, but it all makes me a little nervous. There are a lot of big things that he's planning to do domestically, and who knows what countries we might invade or what might happen in Iraq. But when it gets complex, he seems to turn to prayer or God rather than digging in and thinking things through. What's that line? -- the devil's in the details. If you don't go after that devil, he'll come after you.''
You can worry, but you don't have to despair. You can do something about it. Joe Biden, who tells the story in the first quote is an even money contender to be Secretary of State in a Kerry administration. The vote will matter. Find that lazy liberal friend of yours and drag them down to the County Clerks office and register their ass. Go. You got till close of business Monday. Go.
Biden said that Bush stood up and put his hand on the senator's shoulder. ''My instincts,'' he said. ''My instincts.''
Biden paused and shook his head, recalling it all as the room grew quiet. ''I said, 'Mr. President, your instincts aren't good enough!''
If you read just one thing today, read Ron Suskin's Without a Doubt.
It takes in all that should worry you about how the President acts. So read all about it and start to worry.
A regent I spoke to later and who asked not to be identified told me: ''I'm happy he's[Bush} certain of victory and that he's ready to burst forth into his second term, but it all makes me a little nervous. There are a lot of big things that he's planning to do domestically, and who knows what countries we might invade or what might happen in Iraq. But when it gets complex, he seems to turn to prayer or God rather than digging in and thinking things through. What's that line? -- the devil's in the details. If you don't go after that devil, he'll come after you.''
You can worry, but you don't have to despair. You can do something about it. Joe Biden, who tells the story in the first quote is an even money contender to be Secretary of State in a Kerry administration. The vote will matter. Find that lazy liberal friend of yours and drag them down to the County Clerks office and register their ass. Go. You got till close of business Monday. Go.
Moment of Fame
I realized this morning that I haven't really talked about what a marvelous paper the San Luis Obispo Tribune is. Really, I mean it. This is great paper. It brings clarity and insight to issues important to the Central Coast. You should pick up a copy today. Today, Sunday the 17th of October. The Central Coast Living section is the best part. Best to go there first. Why look, it's a newspaper story about blogs and the elections. What are the chances? Why look, I'm quoted several times. Craigorian Chant is a featured part of the story. What a pleasant surprise.
My favorite part:
As a Kerry supporter, Baracco's post-debate analysis was obviously bias. But thanks to his blog, www.craigorianchant.blogspot.com his views can reach just a many people as the post-debates spinners on CBS or Fox News
Bias! I'm insulted. Hey, I came to those conclusions in a fair-minded and evenhanded manner. The fact I'm always thinking Kerry did better is sheer chance.
I do have couple of beefs with the story: one small, one big. My small beef is with the photos. I look like a complete goof-ball with my mouth hanging open in the photo they ran. The guy with the conservative blog looks all sharp in a suit and tie (Do they issue suit and ties to young conservatives at birth?) Obviously this is a clear case of media bias. My real beef with the story is that it isn't online. I can't link to it! How are my parents going to read it? It was in story; we bloggers need stuff to link to. You can't run a story about a Soapbox in Cyberspace and not put the story online. It's just wrong.
Update: Link to story here.
My favorite part:
As a Kerry supporter, Baracco's post-debate analysis was obviously bias. But thanks to his blog, www.craigorianchant.blogspot.com his views can reach just a many people as the post-debates spinners on CBS or Fox News
Bias! I'm insulted. Hey, I came to those conclusions in a fair-minded and evenhanded manner. The fact I'm always thinking Kerry did better is sheer chance.
I do have couple of beefs with the story: one small, one big. My small beef is with the photos. I look like a complete goof-ball with my mouth hanging open in the photo they ran. The guy with the conservative blog looks all sharp in a suit and tie (Do they issue suit and ties to young conservatives at birth?) Obviously this is a clear case of media bias. My real beef with the story is that it isn't online. I can't link to it! How are my parents going to read it? It was in story; we bloggers need stuff to link to. You can't run a story about a Soapbox in Cyberspace and not put the story online. It's just wrong.
Update: Link to story here.
October 16, 2004
Breaking News
This just into Craigorian Chant World Headquarters:
Dick Cheney has killed a deer! I'm sorry I had to go there, but it's less than 3 weeks till the election and I'm willing to go low if I have to. If there is a soft-hearted swing voter out there that will swing to Kerry due to the death of Bambi, then I say that innocent Pennsylvania deer did not die in vain.
I am also willing try and scare the crap out of our younger readers with talk of a draft. Read here and here about Republican efforts to shut down debate on the subject. While I remain skeptical as to whether a draft will ever be implimented, at this point, if it gets the stoned slackers to vote then lets talk about the draft.
If you insist on high minded talk of foriegn policy then go toWar and Piece. We will have none of that here.
Seriously we are now at the stage of the game where It's "all about" Everything. I'm working up a Craigorian Chant voter guide. What do you want to know about?
Alright, Citizen Fish is registered. How about the rest of you. Three days left. Vote or Die you bums.
Dick Cheney has killed a deer! I'm sorry I had to go there, but it's less than 3 weeks till the election and I'm willing to go low if I have to. If there is a soft-hearted swing voter out there that will swing to Kerry due to the death of Bambi, then I say that innocent Pennsylvania deer did not die in vain.
I am also willing try and scare the crap out of our younger readers with talk of a draft. Read here and here about Republican efforts to shut down debate on the subject. While I remain skeptical as to whether a draft will ever be implimented, at this point, if it gets the stoned slackers to vote then lets talk about the draft.
If you insist on high minded talk of foriegn policy then go toWar and Piece. We will have none of that here.
Seriously we are now at the stage of the game where It's "all about" Everything. I'm working up a Craigorian Chant voter guide. What do you want to know about?
Alright, Citizen Fish is registered. How about the rest of you. Three days left. Vote or Die you bums.
October 15, 2004
Friday Roundup
More things to worry about.
Ralph, Ralph, Ralph. Just what the hell do you think you are doing?
Prostests over the vote are already happening.
Iraq still a mess. Bush not dealing with it. 1092 Americans killed.
In a lighter note, it is comforting to know that the daughters remain hot. Debate shall continue.
Three days left to register. Come on you slackers get moving.
Ralph, Ralph, Ralph. Just what the hell do you think you are doing?
Prostests over the vote are already happening.
Iraq still a mess. Bush not dealing with it. 1092 Americans killed.
In a lighter note, it is comforting to know that the daughters remain hot. Debate shall continue.
Three days left to register. Come on you slackers get moving.
October 14, 2004
Unstoppable Momentum Edition
It is now clear to me that now that Kerry has unstoppable Momentum. Why, the only thing that could stop him is ... Oh God, all kinds of things. Karl Rove scares me. He scares Talking Points Memo.
Well, now that we've had the primaries, the convention, and the nail-biting debates, all that's really left now is the Karl Rove dirty tricks portion of the campaign, right?
I worry about the Electoral College. Did know that a 269-269 perfect tie is possible? It doesn't have to be weird. If Kerry wins every State Gore won plus Colorado, its a tie. And that a tie would broken by the House of representatives? The Republican controlled House of representatives. My nightmare is that Kerry wins the popular vote, the Electoral College ties and a narrow GOP majority votes Bush in. Democrats would lose their minds. This election really comes down to a fight over just a few States.
Maybe I should change the title of this post.
Just four more days to register to vote in California so get going.
Yeah you. Get out of that chair, turn off the computer, put some pants on for God's sake, and go register to vote.
Well, now that we've had the primaries, the convention, and the nail-biting debates, all that's really left now is the Karl Rove dirty tricks portion of the campaign, right?
I worry about the Electoral College. Did know that a 269-269 perfect tie is possible? It doesn't have to be weird. If Kerry wins every State Gore won plus Colorado, its a tie. And that a tie would broken by the House of representatives? The Republican controlled House of representatives. My nightmare is that Kerry wins the popular vote, the Electoral College ties and a narrow GOP majority votes Bush in. Democrats would lose their minds. This election really comes down to a fight over just a few States.
Maybe I should change the title of this post.
Just four more days to register to vote in California so get going.
Yeah you. Get out of that chair, turn off the computer, put some pants on for God's sake, and go register to vote.
October 13, 2004
Mmmmmm Debate
I go home and try and watch TV and all that is on is this dumb Presidential Show. I've seen this show before. Twice.
I'm just going to put this out there. Bush has been President for almost four years now. You think that sort of thing would rub off on guy after a while. But the man just seems petty up there. Like the guy running for class president making fun of the smart kid. "I'm dumb but he's a nerd." Bush started off way to many bit with a bad joke. His body language often seemed to be saying "Can you believe I even have to talk to this guy?" Kerry is amazingly steady through all this. He can maintain that stateman's poise through anything. Bush makes fun of his mom; he keeps his eye on the prize. This is the most important thing that these men will ever do. Ever. Nothing, not their marriages, their children, nothing they will ever do is more important then this. Kerry knows this. Convince me that Bush does.
Stealing from PoliticalWire, the insta-polls have Kerry winning:
CNN/Gallup - Kerry 52% Bush 39%
CBS News - Kerry 39% Bush 29%
ABC News - Kerry 42% Bush 41%
Also, Bush committed a Massive Error.
It's about Bin Laden and we have video tape. Both lines are bad for Bush. This is going to make every news story for the next 48 hours and if somebody doesn't put this in an ad we should just give up right now.
I'm just going to put this out there. Bush has been President for almost four years now. You think that sort of thing would rub off on guy after a while. But the man just seems petty up there. Like the guy running for class president making fun of the smart kid. "I'm dumb but he's a nerd." Bush started off way to many bit with a bad joke. His body language often seemed to be saying "Can you believe I even have to talk to this guy?" Kerry is amazingly steady through all this. He can maintain that stateman's poise through anything. Bush makes fun of his mom; he keeps his eye on the prize. This is the most important thing that these men will ever do. Ever. Nothing, not their marriages, their children, nothing they will ever do is more important then this. Kerry knows this. Convince me that Bush does.
Stealing from PoliticalWire, the insta-polls have Kerry winning:
CNN/Gallup - Kerry 52% Bush 39%
CBS News - Kerry 39% Bush 29%
ABC News - Kerry 42% Bush 41%
Also, Bush committed a Massive Error.
It's about Bin Laden and we have video tape. Both lines are bad for Bush. This is going to make every news story for the next 48 hours and if somebody doesn't put this in an ad we should just give up right now.
The Stakes
So what's at stake with the Tempest in Tempe tonight? I shall declare this in an unbiased and clear way. If Kerry wins then the stakes are tremendous, the outcome certain, the momentum unstoppable. If Kerry loses then the stakes were small, the outcome uncertain and the momentum hard to gauge. I can be no clearer than that.
Seriously though, read this from James Wolcott:
George Bush has lost twice in a row. The gutless wonders at CNN and elsewhere were reluctant to declare Kerry the victor in the second debate, but the subsequent polls leave little doubt as to who was the winner.
Team Bush has to know that they're down two-zip. They can read numbers. So I expect Bush to overcompensate tonight to prove that his confidence is still intact, practically bursting out of his tight suit even at the peril of revealing the hidden transmitter attaching him to his nanny, Karen Hughes, who'll be busy whispering into a microphone buried in her tacky corsage. It's too late for Bush to show reflection and contrition, to admit mistakes; he doesn't have it in him, and he's more comfortable coming out slugging. Bush spent yesterday getting himself pumped by doing a couple of rallies (while Kerry quietly cooled it to prepare), and I expect him to trot out that old boxing line again, "He can run but he can't hide," to which John Kerry should reply, "I'm not running or hiding, Mr. President--I'm right here. Bring it on, little man." Or words to that effect.
Go read the whole thing. Can Bush go 0-3 and still win the election? Time will tell.
Until tonight read up on the Draft and Bill O'Rielly sex harassment and the 9/11 commision up for book awards.
Till later then.
Seriously though, read this from James Wolcott:
George Bush has lost twice in a row. The gutless wonders at CNN and elsewhere were reluctant to declare Kerry the victor in the second debate, but the subsequent polls leave little doubt as to who was the winner.
Team Bush has to know that they're down two-zip. They can read numbers. So I expect Bush to overcompensate tonight to prove that his confidence is still intact, practically bursting out of his tight suit even at the peril of revealing the hidden transmitter attaching him to his nanny, Karen Hughes, who'll be busy whispering into a microphone buried in her tacky corsage. It's too late for Bush to show reflection and contrition, to admit mistakes; he doesn't have it in him, and he's more comfortable coming out slugging. Bush spent yesterday getting himself pumped by doing a couple of rallies (while Kerry quietly cooled it to prepare), and I expect him to trot out that old boxing line again, "He can run but he can't hide," to which John Kerry should reply, "I'm not running or hiding, Mr. President--I'm right here. Bring it on, little man." Or words to that effect.
Go read the whole thing. Can Bush go 0-3 and still win the election? Time will tell.
Until tonight read up on the Draft and Bill O'Rielly sex harassment and the 9/11 commision up for book awards.
Till later then.
October 12, 2004
Tech Update
A couple of new features you may have noticed here at Craigorian Chant. First, we have undergone a general facelift and revamping. This slick new look comes from Adrian, official technical staff and former official roommate of Craigorian Chant. So big thanks to Adrian.
We have also have a revamped coments section here at the Chant, courtesy of our man across the pond Chris CB. At the bottom of each post you see the number of comments. Click on comments to read the comments and leave one of your own. Was what I just said clever? Stupid? Turn you on in some strange way? Let me know.
We have also have a revamped coments section here at the Chant, courtesy of our man across the pond Chris CB. At the bottom of each post you see the number of comments. Click on comments to read the comments and leave one of your own. Was what I just said clever? Stupid? Turn you on in some strange way? Let me know.
Too Busy to Post
Good Lord this Grad School thing is taking me away from the blogging thing. And because I don't want to be all talk I'm going to go register voters today. Instead of a new post from me I bring you a new feature here at Craigorian Chant. Introducing Jess our Senior Basic Cable Analyst:
The great and crazy O'Reilly was on the daily show with the fantastic Jon Stewart last week. Hmm, interesting. After some back and forth jabbing about the drug habits of their respective viewers, followed by some mutual compliments, it got a little more interesting. O'Reilly claimed to be an independent and undecided voter. Um, ok. He has interviewed Bush on his show and he wants Kerry on. Then he'll decide. Then it got better, and he seemed to back that up. He based the cut for the rich a bit. But he claimed that the bush administration succeeded in that there was no depression after 9/11. He also claimed they succeeded in that there have been no further attacks. But then bashed their Iraq/Terrorism policy as ideological, not logical. He hung back from serious criticism of either candidate.
It was more interesting than I was expecting. On one hand I was pleasantly surprised. On the other, I was highly suspicious. O'Reilly? Undecided? Non-partisan? "Fair and Balanced?" My brain just might explode pondering that one.
On a side note, Bishop Desmond Tutu was on the show recently as well. He is quite possibly the sweetest and cutest man on the planet. With the possible exception of the Daili Lama.
The great and crazy O'Reilly was on the daily show with the fantastic Jon Stewart last week. Hmm, interesting. After some back and forth jabbing about the drug habits of their respective viewers, followed by some mutual compliments, it got a little more interesting. O'Reilly claimed to be an independent and undecided voter. Um, ok. He has interviewed Bush on his show and he wants Kerry on. Then he'll decide. Then it got better, and he seemed to back that up. He based the cut for the rich a bit. But he claimed that the bush administration succeeded in that there was no depression after 9/11. He also claimed they succeeded in that there have been no further attacks. But then bashed their Iraq/Terrorism policy as ideological, not logical. He hung back from serious criticism of either candidate.
It was more interesting than I was expecting. On one hand I was pleasantly surprised. On the other, I was highly suspicious. O'Reilly? Undecided? Non-partisan? "Fair and Balanced?" My brain just might explode pondering that one.
On a side note, Bishop Desmond Tutu was on the show recently as well. He is quite possibly the sweetest and cutest man on the planet. With the possible exception of the Daili Lama.
October 11, 2004
Ground Game
All campaigns have two parts. Air game and ground game (Can't stay away from football metaphors) Air game is paid advertising, getting on the news, debates and so on. Ground game is finding voters, getting them registered, and dragging their asses to the voting both. It mostly involves bugging people, either on the phone or at their doorstep. The air game should come out to a tie. Both sides are even in money at this stage and the objective reality that benefits Kerry is balanced out by the Bush teams willingness to lie without shame. With 22 days to go the focus shifts to the ground game. Via Kos check out Red Hot Iowa ground game action:
The race here is so evenly balanced that both sides believe the outcome will be decided by an old-fashioned ground war. Kerry's team, aided by the state party, has put a huge effort into banking votes before Nov. 2 through Iowa's early voting program, which began on Sept. 23.
As of the middle of last week, about 270,000 Iowans had requested absentee ballots, Culver said. State Democratic Party officials say Democrats hold a 2 to 1 edge in those requests and an even larger advantage among those who have returned ballots.
This is good news for Donkey. Campaigns love absentee voters. Every supporter who votes early is one less person who has to be called on election day. That leaves even more time to bug the people who have not voted yet. If you live in a swing state or a place with a hot local race, vote absentee right now. They will stop bugging you. A helpful service message from Craigorian Chant.
The race here is so evenly balanced that both sides believe the outcome will be decided by an old-fashioned ground war. Kerry's team, aided by the state party, has put a huge effort into banking votes before Nov. 2 through Iowa's early voting program, which began on Sept. 23.
As of the middle of last week, about 270,000 Iowans had requested absentee ballots, Culver said. State Democratic Party officials say Democrats hold a 2 to 1 edge in those requests and an even larger advantage among those who have returned ballots.
This is good news for Donkey. Campaigns love absentee voters. Every supporter who votes early is one less person who has to be called on election day. That leaves even more time to bug the people who have not voted yet. If you live in a swing state or a place with a hot local race, vote absentee right now. They will stop bugging you. A helpful service message from Craigorian Chant.
October 10, 2004
A Brief Word for Kerry
I would like to take this opportunity to pitch John Kerry and not just in a "at least he is not Bush" way. A lot of people, including our chief UK reporter Chris (nice use of the word Aposiopesis by the way) have told me that they expect nothing under Kerry, except that he not be Bush. I am here to tell you that John Kerry is the right man for this job and much like the Big and Rich CD I have on right now, he is going to surprise you.
The key to understanding why Kerry is the right man is that you have to understand the current mess we are in. We have two big problems in the world: Iraq and international terrorism. Iraq is the worse foreign policy mistake sense Vietnam. Go ahead, prove me wrong. Staying there is a slow disaster, and leaving could lead to a fast one. I don't have the answer. But trust me when I say that John Kerry, a man who both fought courageously in and against the Vietnam War is the guy you want looking for the answer. Iraq may be bigger than any President. But if you could find someone better to decide if we stay or go, tell me. Next comes terrorism. What we see in Bush is a fundamental misunderstanding about the nature of the terrorist threat. Terrorism today does not need a state sponsor. A Nation does not need to back a terrorist group for that group to hurt us. Bush(and his team) think that state sponsorship is the key to terrorism and so they attack states. Even if those states have no links to the terrorism we are trying to fight. John Kerry understands the nature of our foe. He wrote a book called the New War back in 1997. He understands that it is criminals without countries that we will be fighting in the 21st century. It will quiet, dirty, and tricky as hell. It's getting the German BND to kick down the right door in Hamburg, it's sending 10 guys with no U.S. flags on their uniforms to the right mountain pass in Pakistan and sometimes it's a busboy with a silencer at a cafe in Morocco. It means more Special Forces, better diplomacy, and good hard looks at intel data. John Kerry's whole life has been devoted to struggling with questions of when and how to use American power. He is the guy you want to make these choices. This election is not about choosing between the lesser of two whatever's. We have a real chance to put the right man in the right place at the right time.
The key to understanding why Kerry is the right man is that you have to understand the current mess we are in. We have two big problems in the world: Iraq and international terrorism. Iraq is the worse foreign policy mistake sense Vietnam. Go ahead, prove me wrong. Staying there is a slow disaster, and leaving could lead to a fast one. I don't have the answer. But trust me when I say that John Kerry, a man who both fought courageously in and against the Vietnam War is the guy you want looking for the answer. Iraq may be bigger than any President. But if you could find someone better to decide if we stay or go, tell me. Next comes terrorism. What we see in Bush is a fundamental misunderstanding about the nature of the terrorist threat. Terrorism today does not need a state sponsor. A Nation does not need to back a terrorist group for that group to hurt us. Bush(and his team) think that state sponsorship is the key to terrorism and so they attack states. Even if those states have no links to the terrorism we are trying to fight. John Kerry understands the nature of our foe. He wrote a book called the New War back in 1997. He understands that it is criminals without countries that we will be fighting in the 21st century. It will quiet, dirty, and tricky as hell. It's getting the German BND to kick down the right door in Hamburg, it's sending 10 guys with no U.S. flags on their uniforms to the right mountain pass in Pakistan and sometimes it's a busboy with a silencer at a cafe in Morocco. It means more Special Forces, better diplomacy, and good hard looks at intel data. John Kerry's whole life has been devoted to struggling with questions of when and how to use American power. He is the guy you want to make these choices. This election is not about choosing between the lesser of two whatever's. We have a real chance to put the right man in the right place at the right time.
Decoded: Apocalyptic Aposiopesis
Were you as puzzled as I was about Bush's answer to the question "Who would you appoint to the Supreme Court?" He kind of bumbled around and then said something about someone who would be opposed to the Dred Scott decision, which I figured would just become Daily Show fodder for undermining the interests of his slave-holding constituency. Turns out that Dred Scott is a code word for Roe v. Wade. It also seems that Bush has a plethora of other coded messages for Evangelical Christians.
For a man who claims to be so commanding and forthright about his positions, this seems pretty underhanded. Why not just come out and say it? "I will appoint Supreme Court justices who will overturn abortion rights". "I will govern US foreign policy based on radical Christian beliefs".
For a man who claims to be so commanding and forthright about his positions, this seems pretty underhanded. Why not just come out and say it? "I will appoint Supreme Court justices who will overturn abortion rights". "I will govern US foreign policy based on radical Christian beliefs".
October 9, 2004
Totally Trivial Debate Analysis
Boy, that Kerry sure is tall. Much taller than Bush. Clear winner. Also Kerry had a better tie. And remained calm thoughout. Bush seemed a little punchy up there. Also, does anybody notice that Bush only has about 30 seconds worth of talking points? Kerry can do 2 minutes on a subject, plus the 90 seconds follow-up, plus the 30 second follow-up and still say new things. After the first 30 seconds, which sometimes are quite good answers Bush just begins to repeat himself. Rove should really make him study harder.
Also I must say that Keith Oberman is the man.:
The point awarded to Mr. Bush in the thirteenth round is hereby withdrawn and awarded to Mr. Kerry, for the latter's enterprising hoisting of his opponent on said opponent's own petard.
Mr. Bush is also penalized three points for a truth foul.
Mr. Bush is further penalized two points for getting snarky while in the act of being factually incorrect.
Also worth checking out is this Time poll that has Kerry moving up 6 points into a 45-45 tie. A freaking tie! But:
On being "likeable," a key strength for Bush in 2000, Bush now trails Kerry, 70% - 65%. (Bush had a slight 4 point lead on likeability before the debate.) Bush still leads Kerry by a wide margin, 81% - 42% on "sticking to his positions."
Kerry is more "likeable" Kerry wins! Ha Ha.
Finally I link to this story only because it contains both strippers and city politics. Who doesn't love to read about strippers and zoning. I know I do:
The "Strippergate" controversy erupted last year when it was revealed that Councilman Jim Compton and then-council members Judy Nicastro and Heidi Wills had accepted at least $39,000 in campaign contributions from Colacurcio and his associates before the council approved a controversial rezone of a Colacurcio club.
The three joined in a 5-4 majority voting in favor of a rezone that allowed Colacurcio to expand parking at Rick's strip club on Lake City Way, overturning past denials by the council and city land-use officials.
Also I must say that Keith Oberman is the man.:
The point awarded to Mr. Bush in the thirteenth round is hereby withdrawn and awarded to Mr. Kerry, for the latter's enterprising hoisting of his opponent on said opponent's own petard.
Mr. Bush is also penalized three points for a truth foul.
Mr. Bush is further penalized two points for getting snarky while in the act of being factually incorrect.
Also worth checking out is this Time poll that has Kerry moving up 6 points into a 45-45 tie. A freaking tie! But:
On being "likeable," a key strength for Bush in 2000, Bush now trails Kerry, 70% - 65%. (Bush had a slight 4 point lead on likeability before the debate.) Bush still leads Kerry by a wide margin, 81% - 42% on "sticking to his positions."
Kerry is more "likeable" Kerry wins! Ha Ha.
Finally I link to this story only because it contains both strippers and city politics. Who doesn't love to read about strippers and zoning. I know I do:
The "Strippergate" controversy erupted last year when it was revealed that Councilman Jim Compton and then-council members Judy Nicastro and Heidi Wills had accepted at least $39,000 in campaign contributions from Colacurcio and his associates before the council approved a controversial rezone of a Colacurcio club.
The three joined in a 5-4 majority voting in favor of a rezone that allowed Colacurcio to expand parking at Rick's strip club on Lake City Way, overturning past denials by the council and city land-use officials.
October 7, 2004
Big Mo
I just love a positive feedback loop. Kerry does well in the debate. Edwards puts up a good show. The team starts going up in national polls. The state polls and electoral college lag but will follow. This effects coverage and we get headlines like this "Bush is Beginning to Sound Desperate" "Bush, Cheney Concede Iraq Had No WMDs" Polls get better and so does the coverage.
Second debate goes up tomorrow. It's a town hall format with "real people" asking questions. Expect Kerry to do well, his comeback in Iowa at the start of the year came in part from a massive number of town hall events. Bush does these events as well, but with a pre-screened audience and pre-screened questions. The thing to hope for is a question out of left field that brings out the sputtering dunce that is Bush when he is off his talking points.
Two things to leave you with. First, would you (re)hire this man?
Finally, watch this baby Democrat from Ohio crush the President in a 1 minute floor speech. The issue is the draft, rumors of which I've talked about before. Tim Ryan in one minute shows why no one believes the Administration when they say there will never be a draft.
Second debate goes up tomorrow. It's a town hall format with "real people" asking questions. Expect Kerry to do well, his comeback in Iowa at the start of the year came in part from a massive number of town hall events. Bush does these events as well, but with a pre-screened audience and pre-screened questions. The thing to hope for is a question out of left field that brings out the sputtering dunce that is Bush when he is off his talking points.
Two things to leave you with. First, would you (re)hire this man?
Finally, watch this baby Democrat from Ohio crush the President in a 1 minute floor speech. The issue is the draft, rumors of which I've talked about before. Tim Ryan in one minute shows why no one believes the Administration when they say there will never be a draft.
October 6, 2004
October 5, 2004
Superduper VP Smakdown Edition
I know I'm supposed to tell you all what to think but I'm not sure what to think. My first instinct is to call it a bit of a tie. But what is the fun in that. Must be groggy from all the planning. Checking with peopling smarter than me...
Political Animal has great find. Cheney referred to Factcheck.com when he meant Factcheck.org. Give Factcheck.com a try. Now give Factcheck.org a try. Kind of mix, ain't it?
Oh, I know why Cheney did well. He lied through his teeth. He even lied about not meeting Edwards before tonight. Let's not start with Iraq.
Unfortunately for Dick Cheney, it's become a reliable rule of thumb that the longer he talks about Iraq the further he diverges from the truth. Last night's debate was no exception. As John Edwards attacked Cheney for his general dishonesty on Iraq, Cheney seemed all too eager to prove Edwards's case for him. On two key issues--the burden shouldered by Iraqi security forces and the vice president's own record of suggesting Saddam Hussein's complicity in September 11--Cheney was up to his usual dishonest tricks.
Cheney lies about everything.
From Dailykos I'm seeing an Abc news instapoll that had Cheney winning the debate 43-35 but the Kerry/Edwards ticket picking up 2 points in the horserace number. Weird.
Finally a note on Cheney and gay marriage. Cheney, whose daughter is gay, disagrees with Bush on banning gay marriage. When Edwards brought this up Cheney took a pass. TV Pundits call this a personal moment. Bull. It's one set of rules for everyone and new rules for the family of Dick Cheney. Why does Cheney's kid get a pass. It like these Republican Congressmen who only fund treatment for illness that has killed their family members. If your group is part of Dick Cheney's family then you get help from the government, if not then you can Go F--- Yourself. John Kerry will fight for gay rights and stem cell research even if he doesn't have a gay daughter or a father with Alzheimer's. Edwards will fight for people without jobs even if eveyone in his family has one. You think we were just kidding about that public good stuff?
Political Animal has great find. Cheney referred to Factcheck.com when he meant Factcheck.org. Give Factcheck.com a try. Now give Factcheck.org a try. Kind of mix, ain't it?
Oh, I know why Cheney did well. He lied through his teeth. He even lied about not meeting Edwards before tonight. Let's not start with Iraq.
Unfortunately for Dick Cheney, it's become a reliable rule of thumb that the longer he talks about Iraq the further he diverges from the truth. Last night's debate was no exception. As John Edwards attacked Cheney for his general dishonesty on Iraq, Cheney seemed all too eager to prove Edwards's case for him. On two key issues--the burden shouldered by Iraqi security forces and the vice president's own record of suggesting Saddam Hussein's complicity in September 11--Cheney was up to his usual dishonest tricks.
Cheney lies about everything.
From Dailykos I'm seeing an Abc news instapoll that had Cheney winning the debate 43-35 but the Kerry/Edwards ticket picking up 2 points in the horserace number. Weird.
Finally a note on Cheney and gay marriage. Cheney, whose daughter is gay, disagrees with Bush on banning gay marriage. When Edwards brought this up Cheney took a pass. TV Pundits call this a personal moment. Bull. It's one set of rules for everyone and new rules for the family of Dick Cheney. Why does Cheney's kid get a pass. It like these Republican Congressmen who only fund treatment for illness that has killed their family members. If your group is part of Dick Cheney's family then you get help from the government, if not then you can Go F--- Yourself. John Kerry will fight for gay rights and stem cell research even if he doesn't have a gay daughter or a father with Alzheimer's. Edwards will fight for people without jobs even if eveyone in his family has one. You think we were just kidding about that public good stuff?
Oh for Pete's Sake
Now, of all times, Paul Bremer has decided to come clean.
The former U.S. official who governed Iraq after the invasion said yesterday that the United States made two major mistakes: not deploying enough troops in Iraq and then not containing the violence and looting immediately after the ouster of Saddam Hussein.
Now he tells us. Now. He's out of Iraq. No longer in charge. On the lecture circuit. Trying to salvage his reputation.
"We paid a big price for not stopping it because it established an atmosphere of lawlessness," he said yesterday in a speech at an insurance conference in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va. "We never had enough troops on the ground."
Just once I would like some Bush administration official to do this while in office.
The former U.S. official who governed Iraq after the invasion said yesterday that the United States made two major mistakes: not deploying enough troops in Iraq and then not containing the violence and looting immediately after the ouster of Saddam Hussein.
Now he tells us. Now. He's out of Iraq. No longer in charge. On the lecture circuit. Trying to salvage his reputation.
"We paid a big price for not stopping it because it established an atmosphere of lawlessness," he said yesterday in a speech at an insurance conference in White Sulphur Springs, W.Va. "We never had enough troops on the ground."
Just once I would like some Bush administration official to do this while in office.
October 4, 2004
What is Left to Be Done?
I'll admit that before the first debate I was all nervous. You want your guy to win but I wanted the A's to win this weekend but look at what happened. But now my Guy won and won big. The Polls are swinging his way. Bring on the next debate! Bring me the head of Dick Cheney!
Read this good take on the Tom Friedman I linked to yesterday. Friedman didn't say dump Bush? Ug, he is right. Why not?
Finally, I find the only thing I can read on the Weekly Standard is their Star Wars commentary. This may be the only time that you will see this line all year.
I agree with the Weekly Standard on this point.
Read this good take on the Tom Friedman I linked to yesterday. Friedman didn't say dump Bush? Ug, he is right. Why not?
Finally, I find the only thing I can read on the Weekly Standard is their Star Wars commentary. This may be the only time that you will see this line all year.
I agree with the Weekly Standard on this point.
October 3, 2004
Secrets of Kerry Debate Success Revealed
The Man who played George Bush for John Kerry to practice against was named Greg Craig. This tastefully named person is obviously the reason that Kerry did so well.
Red Hot Sunday Blog Action
Now I really need to get some work done and so do you, but before we do:
Tom Friedman is back from vacation and delivers the massive beating that the current Iraq policy is in urgent need of.
The Rumsfeld Doctrine is: "Just enough troops to lose." Donald Rumsfeld tried to prove that a small, mobile army was all that was needed to topple Saddam, without realizing that such a limited force could never stabilize Iraq. He never thought it would have to. He thought his Iraqi pals would do it. He was wrong.
If you only read one guy talking about foreign policy, then you are only reading me. Good job. If you must read a second guy then read Tom Friedman.
Now go read the NY Times devote 10,000 words to how the Administration engaged in massive deception that lead the Nation into war that has cost the lives of 1,060 U.S. soldiers.
Now that I've got you nice and pissed read Boondocks. Laugh. Now go about your day clear of mind.
Tom Friedman is back from vacation and delivers the massive beating that the current Iraq policy is in urgent need of.
The Rumsfeld Doctrine is: "Just enough troops to lose." Donald Rumsfeld tried to prove that a small, mobile army was all that was needed to topple Saddam, without realizing that such a limited force could never stabilize Iraq. He never thought it would have to. He thought his Iraqi pals would do it. He was wrong.
If you only read one guy talking about foreign policy, then you are only reading me. Good job. If you must read a second guy then read Tom Friedman.
Now go read the NY Times devote 10,000 words to how the Administration engaged in massive deception that lead the Nation into war that has cost the lives of 1,060 U.S. soldiers.
Now that I've got you nice and pissed read Boondocks. Laugh. Now go about your day clear of mind.
October 2, 2004
It's Safe to Look at Polls Again
Massive swing in the Newsweek poll! Kerry picks up 13 points after the debate! Is now winning over Bush! Where did all theses exclamation points come from! Next thing you know, I'll BE TYPING IN ALL CAPS! SOMEBODY STOP ME!
October 1, 2004
Let's Get Happy
I was obviously too restrained in my evaluation last night. Victory is ours! Kerry the mighty! In the words of Boondocks cartoonist Aaron McGruder. “Bush got his ass whupped.” The DNC put together all the bad faces that Bush made during the debate. The fun thing about Bush's facial expressions is that they are ambiguous but bad. Is he bored, annoyed, eating a lemon? I don't know, but it's nothing good. Every poll taken has Kerry winning the debate. Not even Bush's people can put a good face on it.
Things to watch:
Comedy. I mean it. Saturday Night Live's take on this debate could really mean something. It did the last time. The Daily Show already put down a marker with this joke - "What was John Kerry writing during the debate - "I'm so crushing him." The consensus should become that Kerry could not have beat Bush more if he had a stick. If SNL shows Kerry beating Bush with a stick, that impression will stay.
The VPs. The Vice-Presidential debate will come on Tuesday. Expectations on Cheney will now be to stop Kerry-Edwards momentum. If Edwards hands him his head (and he should) Headlines like "2-0" and "Democratic Win Streak Continues."
Democratic Overconfidence. I can feel it coming on in me. First pride then...you know. But until that comes, today is a good day for Donkeys. Teresa should start picking out colors for the White House drapes. Victory!
Things to watch:
Comedy. I mean it. Saturday Night Live's take on this debate could really mean something. It did the last time. The Daily Show already put down a marker with this joke - "What was John Kerry writing during the debate - "I'm so crushing him." The consensus should become that Kerry could not have beat Bush more if he had a stick. If SNL shows Kerry beating Bush with a stick, that impression will stay.
The VPs. The Vice-Presidential debate will come on Tuesday. Expectations on Cheney will now be to stop Kerry-Edwards momentum. If Edwards hands him his head (and he should) Headlines like "2-0" and "Democratic Win Streak Continues."
Democratic Overconfidence. I can feel it coming on in me. First pride then...you know. But until that comes, today is a good day for Donkeys. Teresa should start picking out colors for the White House drapes. Victory!
September 30, 2004
Two Men Enter, One Man Leaves
Alright, maybe the stakes are not that high, but a damn important debate was had here tonight. Kerry seemed to me to be the clear winner on points, he very aggressively went after the President on Iraq, nukes, and the general subject of not changing a disastrous course. Kerry didn't have any "You, sir, are not Jack Kennedy" knockout blows, but he did get his hits in. Bush did get one real howler in when he said 100,000 Iraqi troops have been trained. Even the interim Prime Minister Iraq said that only 50,000 have been trained and the real number is much less than that. On the issue of style I have to say:
Only one man looked Presidential and it wasn't the President.
I know Kerry gets knocked for being too grave, but when you talk about national security you should be grave. Bush just did not look serious. The camera caught him smirking at Kerry's answers. He actually led off some of his answers with "ahhhh." The President at one point felt compelled to say "Of course of know Osama bin Laden attacked us." That’s a real sign that Kerry had him back on his heels. Kerry stayed cool the whole time. Kerry just seemed to know more than Bush. Bush sometimes could not even talk for the full 2 minutes on some questions.
Talking Points, who I bow to in all aspects of online punditry, makes a good point:
To put it bluntly, the Bush campaign has created an image of Kerry as a weak and indecisive man, someone that -- whatever you think of President Bush -- just can't be trusted to keep the country safe in these dangerous times.
Often they've made him into an object of contempt.
Whatever else you can say about this debate, though, whatever you think of his policies, I don't think that's how Kerry came off. I think he came off as forceful and direct. And I suspect that most people who were at all genuinely undecided came away from the 90 minutes with that impression.
If President Bush's current lead is built not upon confidence in him or his policies but in a simple belief that Kerry isn't solid enough to be president, then I think this performance could help Kerry a good deal.
Kerry did not look like a flip-flopper tonight and that could help a lot. The trick now is to win the spin war. We need to start our very own conventional wisdom. Tell your friends. Tell a pollster. Tell the guy who sits next to you on the bus.
Only one man looked Presidential and it wasn't the President.
Only one man looked Presidential and it wasn't the President.
I know Kerry gets knocked for being too grave, but when you talk about national security you should be grave. Bush just did not look serious. The camera caught him smirking at Kerry's answers. He actually led off some of his answers with "ahhhh." The President at one point felt compelled to say "Of course of know Osama bin Laden attacked us." That’s a real sign that Kerry had him back on his heels. Kerry stayed cool the whole time. Kerry just seemed to know more than Bush. Bush sometimes could not even talk for the full 2 minutes on some questions.
Talking Points, who I bow to in all aspects of online punditry, makes a good point:
To put it bluntly, the Bush campaign has created an image of Kerry as a weak and indecisive man, someone that -- whatever you think of President Bush -- just can't be trusted to keep the country safe in these dangerous times.
Often they've made him into an object of contempt.
Whatever else you can say about this debate, though, whatever you think of his policies, I don't think that's how Kerry came off. I think he came off as forceful and direct. And I suspect that most people who were at all genuinely undecided came away from the 90 minutes with that impression.
If President Bush's current lead is built not upon confidence in him or his policies but in a simple belief that Kerry isn't solid enough to be president, then I think this performance could help Kerry a good deal.
Kerry did not look like a flip-flopper tonight and that could help a lot. The trick now is to win the spin war. We need to start our very own conventional wisdom. Tell your friends. Tell a pollster. Tell the guy who sits next to you on the bus.
Only one man looked Presidential and it wasn't the President.
Inauthenticity of Memos Drawn into Question
Not to beat a dead horse, but it now appears that Dan Rather's mea culpa may have been premature. An expert analysis of the documents finds that they were typed and not generated by a computer. The author points out that:
Too bad the hubbub about the documents' authenticity led CBS to pull a 60 Minutes segment on Bush's deceptive case for invading Iraq.
- The font is not Times New Roman, nor any other common computer font
- There is damage on commonly used letters (such as t and e) which is expected in typing but not computing
- There is distortion that is consistent with typing on uneven paper, but not with laser printing
Too bad the hubbub about the documents' authenticity led CBS to pull a 60 Minutes segment on Bush's deceptive case for invading Iraq.
September 29, 2004
Scary Powerpoint
As someone who from time to time bores fellow classmates and someday soon, planning commissions with PowerPoint presentations, I find this link fascinating. Discovered by the official roommate of Craigorian Chant, it is a PowerPoint presentation done for the army about IED or improvised explosive devices. These are the things that are killing our guys in Iraq. The contrast between the world’s most banal software and totally deadly subject matter is just weird.
Don't Let Rove Mess with Your Head
And now a word about Karl Rove. Karl Rove, as well informed readers of Craigorian Chant should know, is the dark genius behind the Bush presidency. All kind of dark powers have been ascribed to the man. Democratic mothers tell stories about Rove to keep Democratic kids in line. If you want to read about actual dirty tricks that the man has played read Joshua Green's piece in the Atlantic Monthly. What I am warning you guys about today is that Rove is going to try and mess with your head.
From Slate:
Sunday's Washington Post made me suspect that the Bush campaign really does think things are going poorly right now. Why? Because Republicans are starting to make preposterously overconfident predictions of a Bush landslide.
It's well-known that Karl Rove believes that swing voters like to vote for the winner. Therefore, one of the central political strategies for Bush has been to create an "aura of inevitability" that, theoretically, will bring people to his side. If everyone believes you're a political juggernaut, the theory goes, then you will become a political juggernaut.
Now there is some logic to this. If I know nothing about brands of cake except that lots of people eat cake A and not B then I should pick A. If you know nothing about Bush and Kerry (Not you my loyal readers) then taking your queues from "The American People" might be a good idea. Thus, Rove is trying to make it look like most people have decided on Bush. Don't fall for it. This sucker is going down to wire.
Money Quote:
The worse things get for Bush, the more likely his aides are to declare that he is invincible. The Bushies are starting to sound like Baghdad Bob, trumpeting a decisive victory for Saddam Hussein as the American military zooms into Iraq's capital city. Whenever Bush is in trouble, someone—usually Rove—declares that things are going just swimmingly.
From Slate:
Sunday's Washington Post made me suspect that the Bush campaign really does think things are going poorly right now. Why? Because Republicans are starting to make preposterously overconfident predictions of a Bush landslide.
It's well-known that Karl Rove believes that swing voters like to vote for the winner. Therefore, one of the central political strategies for Bush has been to create an "aura of inevitability" that, theoretically, will bring people to his side. If everyone believes you're a political juggernaut, the theory goes, then you will become a political juggernaut.
Now there is some logic to this. If I know nothing about brands of cake except that lots of people eat cake A and not B then I should pick A. If you know nothing about Bush and Kerry (Not you my loyal readers) then taking your queues from "The American People" might be a good idea. Thus, Rove is trying to make it look like most people have decided on Bush. Don't fall for it. This sucker is going down to wire.
Money Quote:
The worse things get for Bush, the more likely his aides are to declare that he is invincible. The Bushies are starting to sound like Baghdad Bob, trumpeting a decisive victory for Saddam Hussein as the American military zooms into Iraq's capital city. Whenever Bush is in trouble, someone—usually Rove—declares that things are going just swimmingly.
September 28, 2004
Ten Thousand People Standing Behind Me
Turnout will be key in this election. I'll bet you will hear that a lot in the next month or so. Let me tell you what that means. In the end, after all the pundits, debates and 2 billion in ads all that really matters is that more of our people show up than their people. Read New Donkey on this. He calls it "3 votes and a cloud of dust:"
I think it's increasingly clear that if Kerry (and other Democrats in battleground states) are two or three points behind on November 1, they might still win. Getting to the point where the "ground game" can be decisive, however, means succeeding in the "air war" of convincing persuadable voters to smile upon the donkey.
Feel better? Planners in the readership should note the section on the growth in exurban areas. Now look at this story on massive increase in Democratic strongholds:
Cleveland has seen nearly twice as many new voters register so far as compared with 2000; Philadelphia is having its biggest boom in new voters in 20 years; and counties are bringing in temporary workers and employees from other agencies to help process all the new registration forms.
Lots of chumps will tell you that your vote will not matter. You are not alone. There are ten people standing behind you and a thousand standing behind them and they all want what you want. I will get my people to the polls and trust that the thousands of people standing behind me will each get their people to the polls. You are not alone.
I think it's increasingly clear that if Kerry (and other Democrats in battleground states) are two or three points behind on November 1, they might still win. Getting to the point where the "ground game" can be decisive, however, means succeeding in the "air war" of convincing persuadable voters to smile upon the donkey.
Feel better? Planners in the readership should note the section on the growth in exurban areas. Now look at this story on massive increase in Democratic strongholds:
Cleveland has seen nearly twice as many new voters register so far as compared with 2000; Philadelphia is having its biggest boom in new voters in 20 years; and counties are bringing in temporary workers and employees from other agencies to help process all the new registration forms.
Lots of chumps will tell you that your vote will not matter. You are not alone. There are ten people standing behind you and a thousand standing behind them and they all want what you want. I will get my people to the polls and trust that the thousands of people standing behind me will each get their people to the polls. You are not alone.
September 27, 2004
Would the Real America Please Stand Up
Found a lovely post in the Gladflyer this morning:
The Washington Post is in the midst of a somewhat somewhat interesting series offering a portrait of a young man struggling with his homosexuality as he grows up in Oklahoma, not exactly the most welcoming and open-minded of places. But the title they give to the series is an abomination:
"Young and Gay in Real America"
Excuse me? "Real America"? As they say in the Garden State, where I hail from, fuck you.
Sorry to abandon my ordinarily measured tone, but I am so goddamn tired of being told that places where there are lots of Republicans are "really" American and places where there are lots of Democrats are, well, something else.
You see this all the time. Rural areas and the middle of the country are "Real" and the big cities and the coasts are something else. I've lived in different parts of California my whole life. I grew up rural, went to school and worked in big cities and am doing grad school in a mid-sized city. Now tell me which one was the "Real" America.
The Washington Post is in the midst of a somewhat somewhat interesting series offering a portrait of a young man struggling with his homosexuality as he grows up in Oklahoma, not exactly the most welcoming and open-minded of places. But the title they give to the series is an abomination:
"Young and Gay in Real America"
Excuse me? "Real America"? As they say in the Garden State, where I hail from, fuck you.
Sorry to abandon my ordinarily measured tone, but I am so goddamn tired of being told that places where there are lots of Republicans are "really" American and places where there are lots of Democrats are, well, something else.
You see this all the time. Rural areas and the middle of the country are "Real" and the big cities and the coasts are something else. I've lived in different parts of California my whole life. I grew up rural, went to school and worked in big cities and am doing grad school in a mid-sized city. Now tell me which one was the "Real" America.
September 26, 2004
Election Prep Checklist
Al Gore gives a great speech when he talks about the difference between what the morning after an election victory is like compared to the morning after a loss. It goes something like this: You wake up in the morning, there is a crick in your neck and a pain in your back. Your alarm didn't go off and you're late for work. It's raining outside and the coffee machine is out of filters. You stub your toe getting the paper (which is all wet from the rain) and "Four More Years." Or you wake up rested and ready. The sun is shining, the birds are singing. Together with your paycheck you find the morning paper with the headline "Kerry Landslide." Now with little over a month to go to the election. I now present to you the following handy checklist to prepare for the upcoming elections.
1. Register to vote. I know, I know but just make sure o.k? I would hate to spend all this time convincing you to vote and have you not be able to. You have a couple of weeks left in California, but don't put it off.
2. Chip in money if you can. You can't give any more money to the Kerry/Edwards campaign. But you can give to the Democratic National Committee. The DNC blog is called "Kicking Ass" and that's what they will do with your money.
3. Put in some time. For those of us who are broke the best thing we can give is our time. Find a place to put in a little volunteer time. If you live in a swing state there will be plenty of Presidential action. If not, find a local candidate who seems worth it and put in a little time. Call some voters, change some minds.
4. Find a mind that you can change. Think about everybody you know. The key minds we are after are: 1. Wishy-washy people who have not picked a guy yet. 2. "Soft" conservatives who are upset with Bush. 3. Dumb-ass liberals who are still going to vote for Nader. 4. Lazy-ass liberals who would vote for Kerry if we can only get them to lay down the joint and vote. Find these people! We can start working on them soon, but the important thing is to find them.
You have your marching orders. Go forth loyal readers! Onward to victory!
1. Register to vote. I know, I know but just make sure o.k? I would hate to spend all this time convincing you to vote and have you not be able to. You have a couple of weeks left in California, but don't put it off.
2. Chip in money if you can. You can't give any more money to the Kerry/Edwards campaign. But you can give to the Democratic National Committee. The DNC blog is called "Kicking Ass" and that's what they will do with your money.
3. Put in some time. For those of us who are broke the best thing we can give is our time. Find a place to put in a little volunteer time. If you live in a swing state there will be plenty of Presidential action. If not, find a local candidate who seems worth it and put in a little time. Call some voters, change some minds.
4. Find a mind that you can change. Think about everybody you know. The key minds we are after are: 1. Wishy-washy people who have not picked a guy yet. 2. "Soft" conservatives who are upset with Bush. 3. Dumb-ass liberals who are still going to vote for Nader. 4. Lazy-ass liberals who would vote for Kerry if we can only get them to lay down the joint and vote. Find these people! We can start working on them soon, but the important thing is to find them.
You have your marching orders. Go forth loyal readers! Onward to victory!
September 24, 2004
Klingons Support Kerry
Forget those Gallup polls. 75% percent of Klingons...er, some dudes dressed as Klingons...er, nerds, 75% of all nerds support Kerry!
Don't mock the voting power of nerds. They are just as valid a voter group as "Security Moms."
Don't mock the voting power of nerds. They are just as valid a voter group as "Security Moms."
Friday Roundup
Some more stuff about the draft. Because my mother is not worried enough this fine morning.
1,043 U.S. dead in Iraq. I'm really trying to bring my mom down.
"Life's not perfect" - Donald Rumsfeld on the possibility that parts of Iraq can't take part in elections. Hey, New England, sorry but you can't vote, life's not perfect.
Read Political Animal on the total state of denial that Bush is in.
Read Sidney Blumenthal on the same subject:
The news is grim, but the president is "optimistic." The intelligence is sobering, but he tosses aside "pessimistic predictions." His opponent says he has "no credibility," but the president replies that it is his rival who is "twisting in the wind." The secretary general of the United Nations speaks of the "rule of law," but Bush talks before a mute General Assembly of "a new definition of security." Between the rhetoric and the reality lies the campaign.
1,043 U.S. dead in Iraq. I'm really trying to bring my mom down.
"Life's not perfect" - Donald Rumsfeld on the possibility that parts of Iraq can't take part in elections. Hey, New England, sorry but you can't vote, life's not perfect.
Read Political Animal on the total state of denial that Bush is in.
Read Sidney Blumenthal on the same subject:
The news is grim, but the president is "optimistic." The intelligence is sobering, but he tosses aside "pessimistic predictions." His opponent says he has "no credibility," but the president replies that it is his rival who is "twisting in the wind." The secretary general of the United Nations speaks of the "rule of law," but Bush talks before a mute General Assembly of "a new definition of security." Between the rhetoric and the reality lies the campaign.
September 23, 2004
Debate Countdown
One week till the first debate! Can you feel the excitement? Kerry's voice is gone, which is a little troubling. Rest up big guy. Good news is that when he can talk he is hammering Bush really hard on Iraq. TNR has a good post about how this changes the coverage of the race. By the rules of current jouralism, reporters can't just say "Bush lied about the state of Iraq today" even if he does. That would be 'bias.' But they can write "Kerry says Bush lies about state of Iraq." This is balance. The thing about reporters is that they hate to cover issues. They don't want to write about what Bush and Kerry are talking about. The need to event drama with the horserace. So we go from "Kerry's race to lose" to "Kerry is doomed." Prepare yourself for a "Kerry comeback" and "Race still tight" to be the next storyline. All based on little swings in the polls.
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