In 2004 we all went a little crazy keeping track of the Day to Day swings in polls. Which polls were right which sucked and so on. Well that was just one little Presidential race. The 2006 is actually a whole bunch of races. There are something like 7 or 8 Senate races that are worth following and the number of close House races is growing, not shrinking. Its up to something like 50 races at this point. Crunching all these numbers will drive me rather mad, I think.
My best guess is that the Dems will win the House. I know Larry will get on me for chickens and hatching and all that but the number do look really good at this point.
The Senate looks like a 50-50 battle. Literally. I think its going to end up tied 50-50. If the Dems run the table they could end up in control but there's something in the numbers that just calls out 50/50 to me. It would represent a huge gain by the Dems to get to even, but the Vice President breaks ties.
Wait and See. Wait and See.
2 comments:
Well, yes, I'm still looking at eggs while Craig is counting chicks. But then, he's got the devastatingly good looks and I don't.
Speaking of counting, here's a mathematical conundrum. Electoral-vote.com forecasts the vote at 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans with 1 tie. Yet they show ol' Jolting Joe in Connecticut winning his race as a independent. So are they forecasting 101 Senators?
Seems like mandatory attendance in math 101 is in order.
For those who still cling to the naive idea that ballots that people cast have anything to do with reported results, I suggest this:
http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2005/1559
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