November 8, 2004

Small Towns for Kerry?

If there is one thing I am certain of as far as voting patterns go, it's that people in the big cities vote Donkey and those in small towns vote for the other guys. So, now I see in a couple of places that Bush lost ground in rural areas and small towns while gaining support overall:

Finally, his support was up by 10 points in urban areas and down by 2 points in rural communities, including a surprising 9 point decrease from residents of small towns. This goes against a whole bunch of conventional wisdom (including mine) about the growing urban/rural divide in America. If anything, it seems to have narrowed in this election.


Gallup's post-election poll seems to do some major damage to the rapidly emerging conventional wisdom about the 2004 election. According to Gallup, George W. Bush improved his share among suburban voters (51 percent in 2000, 54 percent in 2004) and among urban voters (35 percent in 2000, 44 percent in 2004) while doing worse among rural voters (60 percent in 2000, down to 54 percent in 2004).

Why did this happen? Did Kerry killing that goose swing some small town folks? Any theories? I know for a fact that I have many readers in small town America. What do you think?

No comments: